Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: IFN use in HCV

We need to distinguish between a scientific answer to your questions and a business answer. From a scientific standpoint, it’s possible that adding interferon of some variety to an HCV cocktail will always generate some incremental benefit. From a business standpoint, however, the question is: How big is the increment?

Josh Boger has talked about the latter question at some length. Boger thinks the upper limit of SVR from a business standpoint is about 85% (on an ITT basis); i.e., attempts to push the SVR rate even higher would run into the Law of Diminishing Returns.

If you agree with Boger (as I do), then the business question one should be asking is not whether non-ifn cocktails will be able to benefit from adding ifn; rather, the question is whether (and when) non-ifn cocktails can reach the 85% SVR threshold.