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Re: Alexander post# 265268

Saturday, 07/03/2004 10:39:11 AM

Saturday, July 03, 2004 10:39:11 AM

Post# of 704041
2500? Maybe but I don't see how. The theme last week was "Semiconductors have reached their peak" and "sell off the chip companies" Sox dropped 5% on the last two days alone. I thought it was a bit premature and overdone but the NASDAQ never listens to me. It may even be correct, a lot of semis will report good earnings but have guided down for Q3.

So if the semis are being dumped what is going to drive the NASDAQ? Financials aren't doing well in a rising interest rate environment either. Biotech is mostly treading water. Without some leadership, can't see a big run.

I've been expecting a run up for months now but the market IMO is running out of time. September and October are tax selling season plus the election and even the economy is showing signs of slowing. Oil is still high and this is likely permanent. I still expect a rally in July-August with no great conviction and would not be too surprised if the market just treads water some more.

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