Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Re: INFORM-1/IFN-Lambda vs. Albuferon

Thanks Dew, that makes sense. It looks we will have some initial data from INFORM-1 in April. I've got ZGEN on my watch list now, but I think it might make more sense to wait and get the initial INFORM-1 data before truly considering an investment.

Separately, I want to get your specific thoughts on IFN-Lambda vs. Albuferon. I know you have Albuferon higher on your "HCV: Most Likely to Succeed" list, although that may be in part due to the fact that it's so far ahead in the clinic.

I can't say I'm too impressed with what I've seen so far in Albuferon. Albuferon was less potent than Pegasys in the latest ACHIEVE-2/3 trials, although they can claim "non-inferiorty" from those trials. With respect to safety, the Albuferon and Pegasys arms were comparable. I realize there are less injections with Albuferon but is this really a giant step forward in interferon treatment for HCV? It seems more like baby steps to me.

IFN-Lambda, by contrast, appears that it may be more potent and much more tolerable given what we have seen so far in the clinic. This would seem to me to be a much more important advancement in interferon treatment for HCV. I realize much more work has to be done, but IFN-Lambda looks much more promising to me than Albuferon. Also, from an investment standpoint, ZGEN doesn't have the trainwreck of a balance sheet that HGSI does, especially given the cash coming in soon from BMY.

One final thought regarding the future of interferon in HCV therapy. I assume the main reason for wanting to replace interferon therapy with a strictly oral small-molecule regimen is due to the side effects of interferon. Again, this may not be as much of an issue with IFN-Lambda given its potential for much improved tolerability compared to current interferon treatment.