Here's a rocket science charting exercise for you...
Graph the 3 year weekly chart with a 90 MA... and describe the pattern since late 2006, together with the current share price relative to the pattern...
Since I don't think the charts have any use at all on this sort of time scale without them reflecting something of fundamentals, you'd next need to compare changes in the charts with changes in fundamentals since October of 2006 in assessing the current situation. Have things been getting better, generally, in that time in the opportunities and capabilities department ? Have things been moving forward, generally, in that time, in terms of moving the business closer to a functional transition from "development of potential" to "development of revenue generating operations" ?
If the business is moving ahead, and the chart pattern shows something of basic utility in understanding market evaluation of the fundamentals... THEN you can reasonably use the chart patterns to make trading decisions...
While noting the market is almost always slow to recognize changing reality... because the pace of evolution in expectations and share prices is vastly different from the pace of real evolution in business... how do you use that awareness to make good trading or investment decisions ?
If you fail to account, in your treatment of the information you see on charts, for the fact that there are variations in markets that are more or less mechanically tied to randomness in market wanderings and external drivers independent of the company efforts, and variations that are more or less mechanically tied to non-random elements... related to the timelines in financing of and implementation of plans for the businesses, along with other more or less predictable changes occurring in the environment in which the business operates... you will often rather widely miss the mark in what it is the charts ARE telling you, even when the evidence is staring you in the face...
Whether "dilution" from any financing is good or bad... whatever form it takes... really depends ONLY on what incremental beneficial use is made of the $$$, and in what time the application of the $$$ will have what impact on the business ? The STAGE of the business development effort alters the relative value of, and time value of, incremental inputs ?
Reality frequently proves that phenomenal opportunities may be lost only for the lack of even minor, incremental financing... while the opposite is also proved often enough... that the proven ability to raise huge piles of money for early stage businesses is not any guarantee of future success in development or in future profitable business operations... which is why VC investors are happy to have one of ten succeed, and three or four out of ten not fail... while targeting big opportunities rather than plodding potentials.
Charts are great... but they are totally useless if you don't understand WHAT they are saying when you look at them, or how what they are saying relates to the other elements in the value creation effort.
JMHO... but, it you can't differentiate the typical "VC funding stage" chart patterns from the "leading up to success in development" chart patterns from the "cusp of success in operations" chart patterns... you aren't getting the point of "how things work" that enables picking diamonds in the rough.
Of course, you could still use short range chart patterns to trade and make $$$ without any of that awareness... and it isn't the case that the only way to make money in the markets is by adopting a VC like focus on the selection of companies... but, it is useful to at least be aware of what it is you ARE doing when you are doing it, well enough that you aren't blindly comparing apples and oranges, or mistaking the meanings of things you do see on charts due to a lack of any awareness in the time scales on which very different things have relevance ?
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