ajtj99's Market Pulse

[Justa Werkenstiff]

Market: Two Naz Ndx possibilities:

(1) We are at the threshold of a technical breakout and we are going higher;

(2) We are at a double top with June 8th (or maybe April 5th on the Ndx);


My problem with the first is that if we are at a technical breakout, short terms sentiment suggests it will fail at anytime. Price indicators have further to go before a sell, but not much and we don't have to get there given the extreme sentiment readings. There is still a bit more room for the sentiment indicators to get more extreme but let's not lose sight of the bigger picture.

One daily survey I follow shows supports this idea. There are 64% positioned long and 22% postioned short. In this survey, this is a bearish read insofar as there are too many people embracing the rally and looking higher.

Now my issue with the double top thinking is that the downside seems limited. I had a target of just below $35 for the corrective move down and we are about a buck short on that one. Calls are building at the QQQ $36 strike.

So my best guess is that on the ndx and naz we are still in a tradng range but at the upper portion of it.