Agere Systems (AGR)

[sylvester80]

Well, next week will be very telling IMO. We managed to close right at the 50% hair cut off the highs (4.14 high to a close of 2.07). I actually have an As weekly chart that shows that an up channel off the two double peaks, is still holding but that we are clearly at the absolute bottom of it (if that channel is correct). So this coming week has no more room for further down on a weekly close. In fact the stock will have to close friday a week from now a few pennies higher than 2.07 in order to still be tagging that chanel bottom. Also, the close at 2.07 was right above the 2.04 support line of the move since the Oct 2002 (we peaked to 2.04 before we hard retraced that .50 to 2.04 move).

I guess my point is that we are still in the game on the long side here but that this week is critical that we do not close the week below 2.09/2.10 or so (based on a eyeball of the weekly chart channel). The top of the channel is currently 4.50 or so, so it would be nice if that is the channel that Agere is following :). We'll have to wait and see... JMHO.

PS. After studying the charts I might look to double my Agere position if we get near the 2.00 area on the As again but would look to dump it if we get close to Friday and we are not close to the levels that I mentioned above for the Friday close.

JMHO. Good luck to all.