Biotech Values

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GNVC

They promise to reveal data points with K_M curve at ASCO '09. Of course, by then, if they haven't partnered, they are laying people off.

From B&S today:

Yesterday GNVC announced interim analysis from its
phase III PACT trial that at first glance appears
disappointing and ambiguous. The news coupled with
the company’s perilous cash position (cash sufficient to
fund TNFerade program only to 3Q09) triggered a
dramatic drop in GNVC’s share price.
Based on the limited data released yesterday, we
believe that the PACT trial has a >50% chance of
success. The primary endpoint of the PACT trial is
overall survival and as measured by the Hazard ratio
seems to favor TNFerade. While naysayers will point to
the lack of statistical significance after 92 events (1/3rd
of the planned events), we believe that upper bounds of
the confidence interval (CI), currently at 1.15, is likely to
fall below 1 as the trial achieves critical mass and as
the true benefit of TNFerade (which becomes evident
between 12-18 months) adds more power to the
analysis. The Kaplan Meyer curve to be unveiled at
ASCO will likely be an eye opener in addressing
concerns regarding the true benefit of TNFerade. The
trial will continue until the next interim analysis, which is
now expected during 2H09.
We remain optimistic about the outcome of the PACT
trial but recognize the next few quarters are going to be
very challenging for GNVC and see limited upside until
validation occurs through a licensing agreement. We
maintain our Outperform rating but are lowering our 12-
month price target to $2.00 (from $5.00), which is based
on a DCF analysis.

Debjit Chattopadhyay
Boenning & Scattergood