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Re: 3xBuBu post# 39344

Thursday, 11/20/2008 9:13:15 PM

Thursday, November 20, 2008 9:13:15 PM

Post# of 72997
Market Update 081120
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html
4:40 pm : Stocks took out new bear market lows in another volatile session Thursday. News of continued weakness in labor markets underscored ongoing economic concerns while a lack of leadership gave investors little reason to turn about-face.

The latest jobless data ensure an 11th consecutive decline in monthly nonfarm payrolls. Initial jobless claims for the week ended Nov. 15 jumped 27,000 to 542,000. That took the 4-week moving average to 506,500 from 490,750. Continuing claims increased to 4.01 million from 3.90 million.

Mounting jobless claims continue to reflect a downbeat mood among businesses. Layoffs have been on the rise as many businesses look to cut expenses and regain footing despite tenuous economic conditions.

Selling pressure took the S&P 500 down to 747.78 late in the session, which marked the lowest intraday trading level since 1997. All three of the major indices registered new closing lows.

Several marquee stocks also took out record lows this session. General Electric (GE 12.88, -1.57) dropped to its lowest point in more than a decade. A Dow Jones report indicated the company is not seeking equity investments from sovereign wealth funds, which countered earlier reports. Given GE's depressed stock price, shares now carry a dividend yield of almost 10%.

Citigroup (C 4.71, -1.69) shed a quarter of its market cap, despite word that Saudi Prince Alwaleed plans to boost his stake in the financial giant to 5% from under 4%.

Weakness in the financial sector was widespread. The sector closed 10.5% lower; it is now down 68% this year.

Energy posted the largest decline of the session, though. It shed 11.2% and is now down 46% year-to-date.

The steep declines in energy followed losses in crude oil prices. Crude futures fell below $49 per barrel to reach their lowest point in more than three years. The commodity finished the session near its lows.

Uncertainty, which is an enemy of the stock market, continues to surround auto makers. While some reports indicate senators have reached a bipartisan auto aid agreement with wide support, the likelihood that a bill is approved and passed in the immediate future is slim. One senator said an auto industry bailout would use existing $25 billion in loans.

Both Ford Motor Company (F 1.39, +0.13) and General Motors (GM 2.88, +0.09) advanced on the news. However, Standard & Poors lowered its rating on Ford Motor (F 1.45, +0.19) to CCC+ from B-, but removed it from CreditWatch.

Hope that auto makers would receive a bailout helped stocks climb to strong gains midsession. The S&P 500 was actually up 1.7% midday. However, stocks turned lower as the plan became muddled and now leader emerged.

As uncertainty and unease mounted around stocks, government Treasuries caught a strong bid. The benchmark 10-year Note surged 91 ticks and is now yielding just under 3.0%.DJ30 -444.99 NASDAQ -70.30 NQ100 -4.7% R2K -6.6% SP400 -7.8% SP500 -54.14 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2458/358/3.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2986/227/2.23 bln

3:30 pm : Stocks extend their losses and hit a new session low as participants enter the final leg of trading. The S&P 500 has finished with a gain in only one of the last five sessions. That advance came this last Tuesday with the S&P 500 climbing just under 1%.

Week-to-date the S&P 500 is down more than 11%.

Action remains volatile. During the month of November, only twice has the S&P 500 closed with a move of less than a full percentage point.DJ30 -238.31 NASDAQ -38.16 SP500 -32.48 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2268/533/2.54 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2827/373/1.56 bln

3:00 pm : Stocks have moved to their lowest point of the afternoon, but remain off session lows. The Dow was down 2.8% at its low, while the Nadaq and S&P 500 were down as much as 3.0% and 3.7%, respectively. Those levels marked new bear market lows for the major indices.

In a statement, Senator Levin said an auto industry bailout would use existing $25 billion in loans in automakers and a compromise proposal for auto makers has wide support.

Standard & Poors lowered its rating on Ford Motor (F 1.45, +0.19), assigning it a corporate credit rating of CCC+, which is down from B-. However, Ford has been removed from CreditWatch, where Ford had been placed with negative implications.DJ30 -165.03 NASDAQ -29.28 SP500 -25.79 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2175/602/2.29 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2766/424/1.43 bln

2:30 pm : The stock market has extended its recent downturn as losses mount.

Treasury Secretary Paulson stated in a speech that market stress is clearly continuing and that maintaining stability throughout the recovery process remains top priority. He noted that transparency of market risk must be a higher priority, as it relates to financial products. Reuters reported that Paulson also stated that further slowing in the economy threatens to prolong the correction in housing prices.

Separately, the Federal Open Market Committee will expand its December meeting to two days, according to Reuters. Markets are currently pricing in a 66% probability the fed funds rate will be lowered from 1.00% to 0.50%. There is currently a 34% probability the fed funds rate will be lowered to 0.25%.DJ30 -115.09 NASDAQ -16.95 SP500 -18.82 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2001/755/2.10 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2634/552/1.33 bln

2:00 pm : The major indices are trading in mixed fashion, continuing to look for direction.

Though earlier reports indicated a bipartisan auto aid agreement has been reached, an official statement is expected at 2:30 PM ET. Reuters reports that an aide stated Congress is likely to hold a session in the next few weeks to debate auto legislation if auto makers submit a plan. Still, putting together a bill to save auto makers and successfully passing it will take time.

Auto makers continue to trade with gains, nonetheless. General Motors (GM 3.10, +0.31) and Ford (F 1.56, +0.30) are up markedly. DJ30 +43.33 NASDAQ +9.20 SP500 -1.96 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1972/ 889/1.88 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2319/704/1.19 bln

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to chop along, falling back into negative territory.

With the future of stocks uncertain, gold is catching interest from safety seekers. Gold is currently up 1.8% to $749 per ounce. Gold actually traded near $1034 per ounce in mid-March, which was near the time Bear Stearns was sold to JPMorgan Chase (25.25, -3.22) in a Fed-brokered deal. DJ30 -39.35 NASDAQ -2.88 SP500 -9.49 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1894/958/1.71 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2189/810/1.08 bln

1:00 pm : Energy (-2.%) and financials (-1.2%) are currently the two biggest losers. The two sectors combine for 26% of the S&P 500's total weighting.

Tech, which is the largest economic sector with more than a 15% weighting in the S&P 500, is up 2.1%. It continues to benefit from large-cap tech names, which have the Nasdaq 100 trading 1.4%.

Industrials are struggling to stay in the green (+0.1%), making up just 11% of the S&P 500. Earlier reports indicated General Electric (GE 14.33, -0.12) was in talks with several Asian sovereign wealth funds, but Dow Jones has reported the conglomerate is not seeking equity investments from sovereign wealth funds.DJ30 +36.96 NASDAQ +8.66 SP500 +1.03 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1792/1031/1.53 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2068/928/964 mln

12:30 pm : Stocks are on the upswing and making their way to the best levels of the session.

Auto makers have been struggling as the likelihood of a government-funded bailout remains uncertain. Both Ford Motor Company (F 1.50, +0.24) and General Motors (GM 3.19, +0.40) have spent nearly the entire session in the red, but recently made their way to positive ground.

The recent ascent follows comments from President of United Auto Workers (UAW), Ron Gettelfinger, stated that without immediate assistance there could be a collapse of one or more domestic auto companies by the end of this year. Also, Reuters has reported that senators Levin, Bond, Voinovich, and Stabenow have reached a bipartisan auto aid agreement, according to a Senate aide.DJ30 +75.66 NASDAQ +15.55 SP500 +2.28 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2020/770/1.34 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2438/549/837 mln

12:00 pm : After seeing the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq tumble to their lowest levels in five years and the Dow drop to a five-year closing low in the prior session, stocks are fighting to regain ground. This session the major indices fell further early on, and have failed to produce a sustainable rebound.

The glum persists as no clear leader has emerged to take stocks higher. Some argue that the S&P 500 may have to test a 2002 low (768.63) before posting a marked advance.

Reflecting the dour state of things, economic bellwether General Electric (GE 13.45, -1.00) hit a new decade low this session after reports indicated the company is in talks to obtain funds from several Asian sovereign wealth funds. In the last session GE announced it would reorganize its capital finance unit.

Meanwhile, financial giant Citigroup (C 5.07, -1.33) fell further into the single digits, despite a vote of confidence in the stock and the company's management from Saudi Prince Alwaleed. The billionaire announced plans to boost his stake in the financial giant to 5% from under 4%, according to reports. Shares of Citigroup are down 85% from their 52-week high.

The skepticism surrounding financial stocks has it underperforming every other economic sector. Financials are down 5.6% this session, currently. The sector is off by 66% this year.

Economic news hasn't helped stocks this session either. Initial jobless claims for the week ended Nov. 15 jumped 27,000 to 542,000. That took the 4-week moving average to 506,500 from 490,750.

Continuing claims increased to 4.012 million from 3.903 million, further reflecting the weak labor market.

The latest data ensures an 11th consecutive decline in nonfarm payrolls when the November data are released.

With weakness in payrolls, consumers are apt to spend less this upcoming holiday shopping season. That has retailers like Limited Brands (LTD 7.37, -0.21) and Gamestop (GME 19.34, -1.22) issuing downbeat outlooks.

Still, strength in online retailer Amazon.com (AMZN 38.05, +2.21) has given retailers, as a group, a 1.5% gain this session.

Nonetheless, a weak economic outlook has oil prices dropping lower. Crude futures are currently a bit below $51 per barrel, off by approximately 5.2%. Oil fell below $50 per barrel earlier, though only for a moment.

Oil's drop has the energy sector joining financials as an underperformer. Energy stocks are down 5.5% this session.

The weakness in stocks has Treasuries trading higher. The benchmark 10-year Note is up 40 ticks and yielding 3.17%.DJ30 -72.32 NASDAQ -1.47 SP500 -11.47 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1861/879/1.18 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2340/624/743 mln

11:30 am : The stock market has pulled off its lows, but continues to trade with losses.

Retailers (+1.3%) are making gains, though. The industry has been sacked by weak consumer spending in recent months, prompting the likes of Limited Brands (LTD 7.65, +0.07) and Gamestop (GME 19.65, -0.91) to issue downbeat outlooks.

Consumers continue to spend less in the wake of rising unemployment and a dour economic outlook. Weekly claims for the week ended Nov. 15 jumped 27,000 to 542,000, all but guaranteeing an 11th consecutive month of nonfarm payroll declines.DJ30 -46.04 NASDAQ +2.26 SP500 -10.08 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1711/984/1.00 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2082/858/646 mln

11:00 am : The Nasdaq is outperforming its counterparts. Leadership in the index is owed to large-cap names like Cisco (CSCO 15.36, +0.28) and Amazon.com (AMZN 38.97, +3.13).

The Nasdaq fell to a five-year low in the prior session. The drop pushed the Nasdaq's price-to-earnings ratio below 27, which is nearly half the average ratio it carried during the last five years.

Some contend that the low multiple accounts for dampened earnings expectations related to a weak economic and business environement. However, basing earnings expectations only on the near term would be a mistake, since it would fail to account for future earnings under more typical conditions. DJ30 -41.18 NASDAQ -1.98 SP500 -8.31 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1992/654/693 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2534/377/470 mln

10:30 am : The financial sector remains to be the worst performing economic sector. It is off by 6% this session alone, and down nearly 67% year-to-date.

One of the weakest performers in recent weeks has been Goldman Sachs (GS 50.60, -4.58). Shares of Goldman are trading at a fraction of their 52-week high of $234.22, which was reached nearly one year ago.

Goldman has struggled amid current economic and financial market turmoil. It even reorganized itself to become eligible for funds made available through the Treasury's recent emergency asset purchase plan. Some analysts predict the company will report a loss for the current quarter. Shares now trade at just 3.0x trailing earnings.DJ30 -125.45 NASDAQ -19.10 SP500 -21.10 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2088/439/439 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2639/231/311 mln

10:05 am : Stocks stay in their funk as economic data remain dour. October leading economic indicators registered a 0.8% decrease, which was below the 0.6% decrease that was widely expected. The prior reading indicated a 0.1% increase.

The Philadelphia Fed Index, which stands as a regional manufacturing survey, also just hit the wires. It came in at -39.1. The index came in at -37.5 the month before.

The loss of confidence in the economy has oil prices moving markedly lower. Crude futures are currently down 5.9% to $50.40 per barrel. Crude futures were as low as $49.91 per barrel earlier.DJ30 -127.44 NASDAQ -21.08 SP500 -18.55 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1851/488/176 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2463/225/150 mln

09:45 am : The major indices have opened lower and are making a sharp move downward. All ten of the major indices are trading in the red.

A lack of leadership continues to plague stocks as the S&P 500 is now down 46% year-to-date. Some market technicians posit that the stock market may retest the October 2002 low of 768.63, which would mean a drop of roughly 2.5% from current levels. Whether stocks push through that low or find enough support to encourage a rebound will only be seen. DJ30 -150.06 NASDAQ -27.80 SP500 -18.72

09:16 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -14.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.00. Stock futures continue to suggest a downward start. Some market technicians suggest a retest of the October 2002 low of 768.63 may be in order. International markets are also showing weakness. Losses are steepest in Asia, where the Nikkei shed 6.9% and the Hang Seng fell 4.0%. London's FTSE is off 2.7%. France's CAC is down 3.5%. Germany's DAX is off 2.7%.

09:01 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -20.50. Stock futures continue to trail fair value, indicating a lower start to the session. Given continued concern regarding economic malaise, oil futures are also down substantially. Crude futures are currently indicated near $50.50 per barrel, off 5.8%. The dollar has advanced 0.5%, according to the dollar index. The dollar index stands at 87.8.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.80. Stock futures have taken a dip following disappointing weekly claims data. Initial jobless claims for the week ended November 15 totaled 542,000. Economists projected claims would total 505,000. Claims for the prior week were revised slightly lower to 515,000. This marks the first time initial claims have been at or above 500,000 for two consecutive weeks since 2001. Further reflecting labor market weakness, continuing claims totaled 4.01 million, which is up from the 3.90 million continuing claims registered last week. The consensus called for continuing claims of 3.90 million this week.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.30. Stocks fell to their lowest levels in years last session, but a quick turnaround looks unlikely as stock futures indicate a mixed tone ahead of Thursday's opening bell. General Electric (GE) is in talks to obtain funds from several Asian sovereign wealth funds, according to Bloomberg.com. Citigroup (C) will get another investment of its own; Saudi Prince Alwaleed plans to boost his stake in the financial giant to 5% from under 4%, according to reports. Reports also indicate Pfizer (PFE) has withdrawn an application to sell Viagra in Europe without a prescription.

06:36 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.00.

06:35 am : Nikkei...7703.04...-570.20...-6.90%. Hang Seng...12298.56...-517.20...-4.00%.

06:35 am : FTSE...3915.31...-90.40...-2.30%. DAX...4234.17...-119.80...-2.80%.



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