Biotech Values

[north40000]

GNVC: I found this analysis interesting and persuasive.
What is wrong with it?

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=1195&mn=1834&pt=msg&mid=6144414

>> Recs: 5 Yahoo Poster Tamuvet2002: PACT Interim look in SIMPLE terms
Apparently considerable confusion about "median" and 24 months.
Hence, hereby I have copied the posting of Yahoo poster TamuVet providing a decent explanation.
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1. 50% of Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer patients are going to die by 10 months, no matter what you do at this point with all available treatments, including TNFerade.

2. However, most of the remaining (SOC only) patients seem to be barely hanging on at that point (10 months) because only 22% are alive 2 months later. Which means 78% of (SOC only) patients are deceased by 12 months. It seems 28% (!!!) of all SOC patients die between 10 and 12 months.

3. To contrast, the vast majority of those remaining 50% of (SOC + TNFerade) patients are going strong at 12 months. Only another 10% or so die between 10 and 12 months.

4. At the 12 month mark, 40% of the total (SOC + TNFerade) patients are alive, while only 20% of the (SOC only) patients are alive.

5. It gets even better between 12 and 18 months. Of the remaining (SOC only) pts at the 12 month mark, only half of them (50%) make it to 18 months. However, of the remaining (SOC + TNFerade) pts alive at the 12 month mark, a full 82% of them will make it to 18 months...so 33% of the total (TNFerade + SOC) pts are alive at 18 months, compared to only 11% of the (SOC only) group. This is the most compelling and significant data, IMO.

6. As many have stated, with the starting date of enrollment and the minimal number of patients enrolled 24 months prior to the 92nd event, the 24 month survival data cannot be at all relevent yet.
n=not nearly enough to draw ANY conclusions yet.

I wish the press release had included something stating that the n was so low at 24 months that the data cannot be interpreted with any degree of confidence yet.

It is unfortunate that many seemed to have looked only at median survival and panicked, when it is obvious from the data that the real benefit of TNFerade comes in the 12-18 month period. And maybe beyond that. There's just not enough data now to know how long some of the TNFerade pts will survive.

Even if 24 month survival turns out to be similar to SOC, any drug that keeps 3 times as many people alive for 6 extra months is destined for approval...With current treatments and prognosis for pancan patients, 6 extra months is HUGE! <<