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Re: 3xBuBu post# 38969

Friday, 11/14/2008 6:54:05 PM

Friday, November 14, 2008 6:54:05 PM

Post# of 72997
Market Update 081114
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html
4:30 pm : Stocks traded with losses for the majority of the session, but gradually climbed to positive territory late in afternoon trading. The rally proved unsustainable, though, as selling pressure intensified to rapidly send the stock market back to session lows.

Stocks were down 4.2% for the week. The S&P 500 is 6.7% above its five-year low, which was taken out in the prior session.

Trading remains volatile as investors continue looking for a bottom amid ongoing uncertainty in financial markets and global economic conditions. However, if anything is certain at this point, the bottom won't be marked by a clear V-shape.

In case they had forgotten, investors were reminded about the global economy's tenuous standing when leading handset company Nokia (NOK 12.59, -1.56) stated it expects fourth quarter industry volume to decline. The firm sees softer consumer spending amid weak economic conditions, while trade partners are challenged by credit conditions.

Weak economic conditions also have retailers fretting over the holiday shopping season. Kohl's (KSS 29.09, -1.48), Nordstrom (JWN 11.74, -1.22), JCPenney (JCP 17.27, -2.01), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 17.79, -4.65) each issued downside guidance for the fourth quarter.

The glum outlook mirrors a 2.8% decline in October total retail sales. Excluding autos, retail sales declined 2.2%. Both were worse than expected.

The downbeat retail sales data set a weak foundation for the PCE component of fourth quarter GDP. Moreover, the data validate the idea that fourth quarter GDP will be well below the original 0.3% decline reported for the third quarter.

In other economic data, October import prices were up 6.7% year-over-year, missing the consensus of an 8.2% year-over-year increase.

September business inventories were down 0.2%, which is below the consensus forecast of a 0.1% decline. The prior reading was revised lower to a 0.2% increase.

Losses among stocks were deep and broad based Friday. Only the consumer staples sector (-2.9%) finished with a loss of less than 3%.

The financial sector (-5.2%) continued to underperform with more than 90% of the financial firms in the S&P 500 posting a decline.

Energy stocks (-4.0%) were also hit hard. The sector put together an 11% advance in the prior session, but with crude oil prices slipping more than 3% investors moved to take some profits off the table. Crude closed the session around $56.30 per barrel.

Weakness in equities sent government securities higher. The 10-year Treasury Note advanced 37 ticks, which was its largest advance this week. The Note currently yields 3.71%.DJ30 -337.94 NASDAQ -79.85 NQ100 -4.9% R2K -7.1% SP400 -5.3% SP500 -38.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 558/2.30 bln/2169 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 623/1.45 bln/2447

3:30 pm : Stocks encounter resistance after breaking into positive ground. The only sectors now trading with a gain are energy (+1.0%) and utilities (+0.4%).

Strong performers in the energy sector feature oil and gas refiners (+5.7%) and integrated oil and gas players (+1.3%). The pair represent the only avancers among the six industries listed in the S&P 500 energy sector.

Their gains come despite weaker oil prices. Oil is down 2% to $57.00 per barrel, which is an improvement from the 4.4% decline it was showing earlier. Oil has shed roughly 6.5% week-to-date.DJ30 -34.09 NASDAQ -33.42 SP500 -9.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 701/1.82 bln/2017 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 874/1.04 bln/2177

3:00 pm : The major indices are fighting to make their way into the green, reversing heavy losses. The stock market was down as much as 4.5% earlier.

Some of the first economic sectors to make their way into the green include consumers staples (+0.9%), utilities (+1.6%), and even energy (+0.8%). At their session lows, the sectors were down 2.4%, 4.6%, and 5.3%, respectively.

Investors await anxiously to see if the recent swing will turn in to an all out rally. Stocks were down almost 4% in the prior session before finishing nearly 7% higher.DJ30 +57.27 NASDAQ -13.13 SP500 +2.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 824/1.58 bln/1848 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1097/917 mln/1935

2:30 pm : Stocks have extended their recovery effort, yet losses remain broad based as every economic sector continues to show red. Losers on the NYSE outnumber advancers by three-to-one.

Treasury Secretary Paulson recently stated that the major purpose of the TARP was to stabilize the financial system and get lending going. He noted that it is highly likely there will be another capital program within the current $700 billion plan. Paulson also stated that he thinks the system has clearly been stabilized. The stock market may not entirely agree, though, considering the persistence of volatility in the major indices. DJ30 -95.34 NASDAQ -36.13 SP500 -13.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 639/1.37 bln/2027 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 712/802 mln/2326

2:00 pm : Stocks are climbing off their session lows, but the ascent has been slow. The stock market was down as much as 4.5% earlier, but it still has a ways to go before reclaiming its session high, which was a loss of 0.5%.

At its current level the stock market is looking at a week-to-date loss of 4.6%. If stocks fail to produce a substantial rally in the final few hours of trading the stock market will end lower for the second straight week.

Weakness in equities continues to benefit Treasury investors. The benchmark 10-year Note is up 28 ticks, lowering its yield to 3.74%.DJ30 -195.69 NASDAQ -48.41 SP500 -24.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 535/1.28 bln/2110 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 559/715 mln/2478

1:30 pm : Small-cap stocks lag the broader market yet again. The Russell 2000 is off by 4.6% currently. Year-to-date, though, small-caps have fallen almost as much as the S&P 500. They are down 39% and 40%, respectively.

Small-caps are often favored by riskier investors for their growth potential. However, few small companies can maintain their fundamental profile when economic conditions falter and credit tightens. DJ30 -236.47 NASDAQ -55.99 SP500 -28.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 548/1.10 bln/2075 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 526/641 mln/2500

1:00 pm : Division among congressional officials continues to ensnare possible plans that will provide federal aid to automakers. Recent reports indicate a test vote is expected next week.

Automakers are trading in mixed fashion. Ford (F 1.85, -0.05) is showing a fair loss, while General Motors (GM 3.00, +0.05) is garnering favor. Both companies continue to see their shares trade at record lows.DJ30 -261.08 NASDAQ -58.65 SP500 -31.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 531/1.01 bln/2072 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 508/589 mln/2501

12:35 pm : The major indices are pulling upward from their session low, but losses remain steep. All ten of the economic sectors are trading down.

The financial sector is now the worst performing economic sector. It is down 5.6%, though it was down as much as 6.1% earlier. Every single industry group represented in the sector is in the red; losses are steepest in the industrial REITs industry (-20.3%).DJ30 -304.09 NASDAQ -66.06 SP500 -35.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 523/902 mln/2059 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 481/532 mln/2511

12:00 pm : Investors have found little encouragement to buy into the market, causing a reversal of the prior session's rally. Stocks have traded with losses since the start of the session.

In economic data, October import prices were up 6.7% year-over-year, missing the consensus of an 8.2% year-over-year increase. September business inventories were down 0.2%, which is below the consensus forecast of a 0.1% decline. The prior reading was revised lower to a 0.2% increase.

With the holiday shopping season quickly approaching, retailers are doing little to calm concerns that recent weak consumer spending will turn around. October total retail sales declined 2.8% and retail sales, excluding autos, declined 2.2%. Both were worse than expected and set a very poor foundation for the PCE component of fourth quarter GDP. Moreover, the data validate the idea that fourth quarter GDP will be well below the original 0.3% decline reported for the third quarter.

Supporting a weak consumer spending outlook, Kohl's (KSS 29.29, -1.28), Nordstrom (JWN 11.97, -0.99), JCPenney (JCP 17.50, -1.78), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 19.77, -2.67) each issued downside guidance for the fourth quarter.

Retailers continue to curtail their revenue estimates as consumers tighten purse strings amid mounting job losses. Just yesterday weekly jobless claims hit a seven-year high, and today The Wall Street Journal reported Citigroup (C 8.89, -0.56) is laying off at least 10,000 employees starting this week. Sun Microsystems (JAVA 4.12, +0.04) announced it will reduce its work force by 5,000 to 6,000.

Global leader in mobile handsets, Nokia (NOK 12.46, +1.69), expects fourth quarter industry volume to decline. Tighter credit conditions and weak economic trends underpin Nokia's forecast.

The major indices continue to trade near session lows. Whether buyers enter the market to produce an afternoon rally is unknown, but not precluded by early headlines. Headlines yesterday were anything but positive, yet stocks managed to swing from a loss of nearly 4% to finish with a gain of nearly 7%.DJ30 -321.14 NASDAQ -69.24 SP500 -36.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 518/797 mln/2029 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 480/473 mln/2490

11:30 am : Stocks post steep losses, falling to session lows. Treasuries are recouping some of the decline seen yesterday, with the 10-year note up 37 ticks, sending its yield down to 3.71%.

Gold prices are in rally mode, climbing 5.2% to $741.40 per ounce.

The White House said it is talking to Congress about accelerating the $25 billion auto loan package that was already appropriated, Reuters reports. GM (GM 3.00, +0.05) is trading with a slight gain while Ford (F 1.85, -0.5) posts a loss.DJ30 -267.67 NASDAQ -60.97 SP500 -31.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 561/692 mln/1958 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 507/412 mln/2430

11:00 am : Oil prices are sagging after a strong rebound in the prior session. Crude oil futures are currently down 2.7% to trade near $56.60 per barrel. Oil was down to $56.16 earlier, which marked a session low.

The drop in oil has caused considerable weakness in the energy sector (-4.3%). Energy finished the prior session with an 11% advance, more than any other sector, but is currently the worst performer this session.

Weakness in the energy sector is widespread. Integrated oil and gas companies are down 3.9%; oil and gas explorers are down 4.9%; oil and gas equipment companies are down 6.7%.DJ30 -227.39 NASDAQ -54.11 SP500 -27.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 553/554 mln/1894 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 498/331 mln/2396

10:30 am : Stocks encounter renewed selling pressure and fall to their lowest level of the morning. All ten of the major economic sectors are posting hefty losses.

Only the consumer staples sector has kept its losses below 1%. The sector is currently down 0.7%, thanks to leadership from Dow component Coca-Cola (KO 46.78, +0.50).

Consumer staples stocks have held up relatively well this year against broader market forces. Investors have been attracted to their stable business of consumer products, which kick off steady earnings and cash flow.

While the stock market has shed nearly 40% year-to-date, the consumer staples sector is down 17% this year.DJ30 -150.61 NASDAQ -45.11 SP500 -20.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 609/406 mln/1745 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 547/245 mln/2295

10:00 am : Just hitting the wires, September business inventories were down 0.2%, which is below the consensus forecast of a 0.1% decline. The prior reading was revised lower to a 0.2% increase.

The preliminary consumer sentiment survey for November came in at 57.9. The consensus called for a reading of 56.7 following the prior reading of 57.6.

Stocks show little reaction to the news amid continued losses. Still, the indices are off their lows.

Separately, FDIC has issued a proposal to promote affordable loan modifications. The plan includes paying servicers to cover expenses of loans modified and sharing losses in the event a modified loan falls back into default. FDIC estimates the program can be applied to some 1.4 million non-GSE mortgage loans. DJ30 -42.29 NASDAQ -26.38 SP500 -8.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 834/221 mln/1403 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 853/154 mln/1861

09:45 am : Stocks open with sizable losses. The major indices fail to extend the prior session's rally, which saw the S&P 500 swing from a loss of nearly 4% to finish with a gain of nearly 7%.

Continued volatility is expected as investors and traders search for a bottom to the current bear market. The S&P 500 is currently down more than 40% from its 52-week high and down nearly 39% year-to-date.DJ30 -79.64 NASDAQ -26.61 SP500 -11.24 NASDAQ Adv/Dec 653/1459 NYSE Adv/Dec 653/1968

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -18.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -27.00. Stocks remain on track for a downward start to the trading session as futures continue to trail fair value.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -15.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -24.50. A downward start is in the making as futures continue to trade below fair value. Fed Chairman Bernanke stated in a prepared speech regarding coordination among central banks that financial turmoil was the product of a global credit boom, and monetary policy actions have not resolved the ongoing strains in financial markets. He also stated that continuing volatility of markets and recent indicators of economic performance confirm that challenges remain.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -18.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -25.50. Stock futures have turned lower, suggesting an even weaker opening for the week's final trading session. The global leader in mobile handsets, Nokia (NOK), expects fourth quarter industry volume to decline, but believes its market share will be unchanged to slightly up sequentially. Layoffs continue to mount amid economic weakness; Sun Microsystems (JAVA) announced it will reduce its workforce by 5,000 to 6,000. October import prices were down 4.7% month-over-month, exceeding the 4.4% downturn that was widely expected. October import prices were up 6.7% year-over-year, though. The consensus called for an increase of 8.2% year-over-year. Advance retail sales for October indicated a 2.8% downturn, though the consensus called for a 2.1% downturn. Excluding autos, retail sales were down 2.2%, which is worse than the 1.2% dip that was expected.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.00. Stock futures currently lag fair value, suggesting a downward start for the major indices. Retailers continue to expect a weak holiday shopping season; as such, Kohl's (KSS), Nordstrom (JWN), JC Penney (JCP), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) each issued downside guidance for the fourth quarter. With Citigroup's (C) stock price tumbling into the single-digits and uncertainty surrounding its management, The Wall Street Journal reported that the financial services giant is laying off at least 10,000 employees starting this week. The article also reported Citi CEO, Vikram Pandit, purchased 750,000 shares last session, showing faith in the company.

07:58 am : Nikkei...8462.39...+223.80...+2.70%. Hang Seng...13542.66...+321.30...+2.40%.

06:42 am : FTSE...4326.60...+157.40...+3.80%. DAX...4812.03...+162.40...+3.50%.

06:40 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.80.

06:40 am : Nikkei...8462.39...+223.80...+2.70%. Hang Seng...13542.66...+321.30...+2.40%.



My posting is for my own entertainment, do your own DD before pushing your buy/call butto

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