GTC Biotherapeutics (fka GTCB)

[quantumdot]

Dew given your propensity for handicapping and quantitative methodologies, would you be willing to put some odds on these events?

FWIW, here are mine.

1. Shareholder vote on proposed financing from LFB: [Approved 75%; Not approved 25%]

2(a). FDA advisory panel for ATryn BLA: Jan 2009. [Majority Vote for safety and efficacy proved 40%; Roughly equal panel 25%; Majority vote for safety and efficacy not yet proved 25%; administrative or other delay in panel review 10%]

2(b). FDA PDUFA date for ATryn BLA: 7-Feb-2009. [Two questions here: Delay beyond PDUFA date, Yes 65%; No 35%. Positive marketing authorization on first review 30%; request for more info/another trial etc 60%; rejection 10%]

3. Update on the transfer of Leo’s ex-US ATryn rights to LFB. GTC has given no guidance on when this might occur; the sooner the better because the phase-2 DIC trial is on hold pending the outcome of these negotiations. [not really possible to handicap but I will bet that LFB does not pay LEO what it originally cost them for the rights which has to be negative]

4. One or more FoB partnerships. [Likelihood of another licensing deal before US ATryn decision and some resolution of their precarious financial situation, i.e. before April 2009 is less than 5% IMO]