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M3

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Alias Born 10/01/2003

M3

Re: was Steve post# 36234

Wednesday, 11/12/2008 8:29:52 PM

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 8:29:52 PM

Post# of 37180
There is a gap from 1933 at 60.7 on the DOW I've been watching. <g>

Should have held that MOAS from 2005 ;) I don't think this ends until about 5 or 6000 Dow in 2010 or more likely 2012 when the poles shift and the Aztec calendar ends <g>. If you connect the DOW lows in 1933 to the lows in 1982 that lines up about right.

jjstingray has a good bullish count right here:
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=25166842

The alternate is a cave-o-rama iii of III of 5 down starting real soon, maybe manana. Even if we bounce back to 1000 spx right here, it's only completing wave 4, and we still have to finish this nasty wave we're in which should at least test the 2002 lows but will likely take them out.

If we don't take out the 2002 lows, the bulls could say the bear is over and we completed an ABC correction of the 02-07 bull, and we're off to new highs. The bears will say we now rally into 2009 in a larger degree wave 4, back to 10,000+ DOW/1000+ S&P, before the final wave 5 washout into 2010 or 2012. More than likely, we chop around. The Benner Fib model has a 2010 high, and that would fit with a long drawn out wave 4, before finally washing out around 2012.

I favor the bear count. Mish has a great write up, charts, and elliot wave explanation on this count here: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/10/s-500-crash-count.html

But I've got cash, guns, food, water, medicine, ammo, seeds, gas, generator, camping gear too, as I'm still watching that gap from 33. <VBG>

Cheers to the old bear den! We were early, but we were right.

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