Neuro,
Thank you for the informative post. I think there are a couple of additional things that you should that you should also consider. First, Cortex is amoung the very few small biotechs whose valuation has increased over the past year. Their 'crash' occurred last year, so while the company's share price has decreased over the past few months, the value in a partnership is significantly greater because of the recent clinical successes than just a few months ago.
Second, it is not in the interest of BP to force painful terms on the partnering company. It serves no purpose to sign a deal on terms whereby the small company does not gain sufficient resourses to live up to their side of the partnership. The same cannot be said about an acquisition, and the BP comment you mentioned about accepting their lowered valuation applies to these cases.
Finally, very few biotech products pose the kind of threat to existing product lines that Cortex's RD application does to opioid formulations. There are at least a couple of companies (I think you mentioned J&J and Cephalon.) that derive significant revenue from the sale of opioid pain medications. These revenue streams could be destroyed by the introduction of an RD risk-free opioid product line.
So, all-in-all, while the environment is horrible compared to a couple of years ago, I think Cortex should still be able to come away with a good deal.
Thanks,
Karl