Ander's Market Theories

[AnderL]

I picked up some old books to review what is going on right now. Economic stagflation since 2000. This past recover through 2003-2007 was just a bear market bounce in a long running secular bear market.

Second recession is usually the worst but not necessarily the last in a a secular bear market.

Fed could have exacerbated this recession simply by enacting changes that were designed to try to get the economy out of the secular bear. The cyclical bull in this secular bear was supposed to end around 2005-2006. It was the same time that the Fed discontinued M3 and ran up money supply by 16%. All that extra cash flooded the market and helped support the influx of money from overseas into our CDS market. The dollar plunged due to demand but at the same time the CDS market collapsed.

It was like one last big push to end the secular bull but failed. Now we are suffering through it worse than it could have been because of intervention and maybe not so much because of free market capitalism.

Its about time for another cyclical bull but it will be weaker and will take longer to muddle through. My bet is long term interest rates will be running up soon.