Short Term Trading Member Forum

[arjunah]

SPX: I have linked to a post I put up last March showing a Hurst projection to 950 (the SPX was near 1300 then). At the time, I was expecting that target within weeks, as a 4 1/2 year bottom, not in seven months as it has turned out. I still consider March 2008 to be the most likely occurrence of the 4 1/2 year bottom and, as I've noted before, that is a very bearish scenario as it implies the highs for this current 4 1/2 year cycle are behind us and there will be a long term downtrend in effect into the end of 2012.

Both the 9 Year and the 18 Year FLDs have been broken to the downside, implying both the 9 Y high and 18 Y highs are behind us. The 18 Y downside target has been surpassed and the 9 Y target is about 650. Again, evidence of an extremely negative long term trend.

The only hope for the bulls is that we are now experiencing the 4 1/2 year bottom. But to support that position, I would like to see a a complete cycle analysis, consistent with Hurst's principles, from the last bottom in March 2003.