Biotech Values

[iwfal]

Are you buying?

If they need a 22% reduction in the risk of death at final analysis, and you believe the curves get stronger from here on out, it seems to be a good bet, no?

I might. It is, however, a violation of my rule to never invest in bad management unless the potential return is stellar. I need to figure out how 'stellar' it is. E.g. I probably want to look at the chance that the post placebo median HR was 50% greater than the HR to placebo median. My guess is p<0.05 that it would get such better HR in both 9901 and 9902a.

If it had dropped to $2, yeah, a slam dunk. At $7.90 I need more calibration of 'stellarness'.