Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[pstuartb]

Sure, if you strip out the qqq put activity from the equity side like Zeev does, the remaining "virgin EPC" ratio is still fairly high. Do a search against Zeev's posts for that phrase, he's talked about it many times. The recent breadth and sentiment readings definitely suggest the uptrend will resume, I just doubt that the rally will be proportionate to the extreme nature of the readings. Lots of technicians are pointing to the same extreme readings and concluding we'll have a substantial rally, while many other technicians are saying that the readings are misleading us this time. Who knows. Lots of folks aren't embracing this rally yet because volume has been so low, but the big August rally last year was on low volume, and the December 2003 rally began on low volume too. I just think the p/c ratio is sending a deceptively bullish signal. We've got an enormous quantity of qqq puts at 35 and that looks like terror insurance to me. Calls outnumber puts at 37 but not by much. We don't have any large build up of puts on qqq for July yet, but puts outnumber calls at each strike up through 37. I'd like to see us consolidate through expiration by drifting around 36 give or take a half point on low volume. That might cause more hedging at 36 and 37 for July, which could ratchet up the "floor" a bit.