Value Microcaps Motherboard

[lentinman]

Sell half on the double:

As everyone knows, I have argued repeatedly for the sell half on the double philosophy over the years. Sell half and then let the rest run on the house's money.

There is one major essential requirement for that belief - that being that the markets will continue to go up over time - specifically that stock. You just don't want to wait for a stock to go back up after it has a blow off top and falls. So, you sell half and put it into another stock that hasn't yet had a run. Of course, over time, you end up with lots of stocks - many of which have had their day. That's why I instituted a sell-the-other-half-after-one-year policy unless the story was still intact.

Having explained the basic philosophy, I can no longer recommend it because the premise is now flawed - that being that the markets (and individual stocks) are no longer likely to go up over time IMO. I think it is very possible that it will be years and years (inflation adjusted) before the SP5 is back to last October levels.

Therefore, I changed my profile page from "50 Stocks, Diversify, Sell Half When Doubles, Target 100% in a year" to "Run for cover and don't look back!"

Len