Jelly Donut,
I agree with you on this. Unless there is a dramatic surprise in the numbers, I wouldn't imagine the 43-101 by itself will drive this too much further. In fact, why would it, if you think about it? They have already announced the results from the remaining 19 holes from the first program of 57, so all of information in the report is already known at this point. To Cutting Corners point, if incoming news is already known (or "so-so" as he called it), then simply putting it into a different printed format shouldn't change things.
However, I do believe that the recent pullback was over-done a bit, since my personal fair valuation puts this stock in the $0.045-$0.05 range based on current reserves. From a fundamental perspective, the past few weeks drop in price could be blamed on "uncertainty" that has come along with not knowing when/if the report was coming out. If everyone on this and other message boards is asking, "Didn't they say in the conference call that it would be out by August... But then some PR's and SEC filings said by the end of 3Q... So did they really mean August or Septmeber?" then you can bet that the investing public was wondering the same thing. In my opinion, simple uncertainty discounted this stock below a fair value.
I believe that GSPG management thought the same way, since they saw fit to let everyone know in advance that the report is done and will be presented shortly. Normal procedures would have required that they file the report the same day as presentation, but I think they wanted to slow/stop the losses ASAP before moving into the conference, so they squashed the "fear of the unknown".
My hope is that the release of the 43-101 allows share price to properly reflect the assets, as well as to strengthen its ability to borrow against them. Also, I'd like to see some more deep-pocketed investors whose buy-and-hold hands will cut the amount of float that can be manipulated.
I'm less focused right now on the 43-101, and more focused on the part of the PR which says that they "will also discuss recent planned land acquisitions, plans for further consolidation of the Comstock Lode, the progress at the Hartford Complex mine, and exploration opportunities within the Comstock." At this point, the story is what will give us a premium over simply the value of the currently known assets to help put some valuation to the other 90% of GSPG's property. If management can get the story right and sell it correctly (good results on 10% = lower risk on 90%), then we can start getting investors willing to buy into the float (rather than through private placement). Only then do I see this thing getting over $0.10/share.
Comments are welcome and appreciated.
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