Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

Venezuela's radical opposition will ignore CNE decisions on recall referendum


Will have to wait and see how prophetic these direct political sources are. -Am

Published: Sunday, May 30, 2004
Bylined to: Philip Stinard

According to direct political sources the Venezuelan opposition will, in the next few days, provoke violent actions to create a climate to justify the disavowal of the National Elections Council (CNE) if it does not activate the Presidential recall referendum. It’s presumed that international observers from the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Carter Center will disavow the CNE’s decision and leave the country.


The Coordinadora Democratica (CD), OAS and the Carter Center’s actions are in line with recent statements by US Under Secretary of State for Latin America, Roger Noriega, who in reference to the Presidential recall referendum said that “it’s very clear to us that the required number of people supported the petition.”

There is probable intent to artificially create an “institutional crisis” through the resignation of officials in institutions such as the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ), the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV), IRS (SENIAT) and the Foreign Service.
Radical sectors of the Venezuelan Worker’s Confederation (CTV) will push for a public transportation and shipping stoppage to generate instability. There is probable intent to negatively impact petroleum operations through sabotage in operations, platform technology, and reputation and image of Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) ... paramilitary actions in key states such as Zulia, Anzoategui, Sucre, Monagas and the Capital District.

There is intent to generate instability in the military sector during the repairs process during the weekend.
The activation of US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) plans in connection with paramilitaries and the media to deepen the psychological war against the Venezuelan middle class. Equally, the CIA will be trying to negatively impact PDVSA operations through sabotage at all levels of the corporation. The media is creating a matrix of opinion that the violence that will probably take place during the weekend is sponsored by the National Executive.

While the opposition’s coup plan has the objective of generating violence, the National Executive will coordinate actions with CUFAN, the intelligence services and the CNE to guarantee the successful and peaceful culmination of the signature repair events. 40,000 National Armed Forces (FAN) personnel will be deployed through Plan Republica.



A. Characterization of the situation

According to information from direct political sources and State intelligence agencies, radical sectors of the Venezuelan opposition will presumably execute violent actions and ignore the CNE’s decision in the event that the presidential recall referendum is not activated.

The opposition’s plan consists in invoking Article 350 of the National Constitution and calling for civil and military disobedience, wrapping themselves in a mantle of supposed Constitutional legality. CNE and intelligence sources assure that, in parallel, the OAS and Carter Center’s international observers have already prepared a communication to ignore the CNE’s care and legitimacy in the repairs process, removing themselves from the observation process and leaving the country. It’s suspected that this action will constitute only a first short-term step to create a matrix of international opinion, promoted by Washington, to turn Venezuela into a “Rogue State,” or an “Outlaw State” to justify Venezuela’s isolation from the world, and to precipitate the overthrow of the Constitutional President, Hugo Rafael Chavez Frias.

B. National and Transnational Offensive against the institutions

At the same time, a national and transnational offensive against Venezuelan electoral authorities and institutionality because of the supposed authoritarian nature of the National Executive, has been launched. In that sense, Roger Noriega’s statements frame this policy. Noriega said that “if through a forced bureaucratic process, these signatures are discarded, that could have very grave consequences for Venezuelans and those who support their constitutional rights.” Noriega asserted that “it’s very clear to us that the required number of persons supported the petition.” Undoubtedly, this is a clear intromission of the United States government into the internal affairs of Venezuela. It’s important to remember that Roger Noriega is a representative of the most right-wing anti-Castro Cuban groups of Miami, and furthermore, he was involved in the scandal of the presumed manipulation of votes in the State of Florida, to guarantee current US president George W. Bush’s electoral “victory.”



C. Military invasion or economic sanctions

Meanwhile, in Venezuela, the most right-wing groups headed by ex-governor of Carabobo, Henrique Salas Romer, commented recently in the print and radio communications media that the United States will confront Venezuela this time. In that sense, several analysts don’t discard the possibility of a US invasion of Venezuela, and argue that the NATO “War Game” conducted in 2001 under the name Operation Balboa is part of the northern power’s war plans against Venezuela (testimony of National Defense Council Secretary, General (ret.) Melvin Lopez Hidalgo). However, historian Samuel Moncada notes that the US confrontation against Venezuela could happen through economic sanctions, and not necessarily a military invasion of our nation. Invariably, the economic variable involves petroleum as a strategic weapon in world geopolitics, and one suspects that powerful transnational petroleum interests associated with the US government will continue pressuring OPEC, and Saudi Arabia in particular, to increase crude production and lower prices. If the White House achieves this objective, that would be a strong blow to the Venezuelan economy.



D. The artificial “institutional crisis,” violence, and the paramilitaries

Intelligence reports from the National Executive indicate that opposition factors will presumably promote within the next few days “resignations” and “pronouncements” of medium and high-ranking public officials, who will “yell to the world that Venezuela has a dictatorship.” They will try to repeat the situation created by Venezuelan ex-ambassador to the United Nations Milos Alcalay, but this time, they will execute the operation not only in the foreign service, but also in national institutions such as the TSJ, BCV, SENIAT, etc. The strategy of the most radical opposition groups is to create an artificial environment of chaos, ungovernability, and anxiety to try to foment a military insurrection in Venezuela. In this sense, the thread of the opposition’s discourse has become clear; and other concealed people such as Alejandro Pena Esclusa, Patricia and Rafael Poleo, representatives of the so-called “Democratic Block,” have intensified their media and transnational lobbying campaign since January of 2004 to try once again to overthrow the legitimately elected government of Hugo Rafael Chavez Frias.

One of the most convincing evidences of the intent to destabilize the Chavez government is the case of the Colombian paramilitaries captured on Venezuelan soil, which has been banalized, minimized, and even ridiculed by the powerful private radio and television communications media. One presumes that, apropos of the electoral repairs event for the presidential recall referendum, they will activate “latent” paramilitary groups in Venezuela. In order to apply these actions, they are aligning Venezuelan anti-national groups tied to Plan Colombia and the Patriot Plan, the latest, fully military version of Plan Colombia. On the other hand, there is information from direct sources within the CTV that sectors of this worker’s union are planning a public transportation and shipping stoppage to contribute to social chaos that would weaken the National Executive. Finally, intelligence reports note the probability of sabotage against electricity generation infrastructure, the national petroleum industry, water reservoirs, and the Caracas Metro, among others.



E. Conclusions

There is a new intent by national and transnational opposition forces to overthrow the President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez Frias through political violence, to take control of political power and Venezuelan energy and water resources.

The Venezuelan political system is vulnerable for several reasons: corruption, drug trafficking, lack of education and citizenship, among others.

State security and sovereignty are vulnerable, given the length of the frontier that Venezuela shares with Colombia.
There is disarticulation in the rhythm of political paramilitary violence and the potential invasion of the country due to the proactive and effective actions of Venezuelan state security and intelligence agencies. Important state institutions are vulnerable: BCV, SENIAT, DIEX, CADIVI, and CNE, among others. PDVSA is vulnerable because of presumed internal factors that could be aligned with the transnational political opposition to destabilize the industry and impact Venezuela’s constitutional fabric.



F. Importance

There is intent by radical national and transnational opposition groups, with the help of foreign intelligence agencies like the CIA, who could be acting covertly within PDVSA to negatively impact the corporation’s short term operations.

The media campaign of public discredit against PDVSA continues. Attacks could take place through internal actors, crude production levels, and the incidence of accidents, among others.

There is possible intent by radical opposition sectors in the petroleum industry such as Gente del Petroleo and UNAPETROL to “reheat” the political environment in states where PDVSA operates at the national level, and also to impact the industry’s internal labor force through a new attempt to paralyze operations. These actions would threaten the stability of Venezuela’s democratic system.



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