Your Economy (No Politics)

[Bullwinkle]

CYCLE Update/Trend Analysis for the week of June 1st

Well it's that time again for the week in review and what we may expect for the week to come. As mentioned in my previous cycle/trend update post with which this post replies there were a number of things I wanted to see happen to get the ball rolling. We had already received the cycle turn and change of direction in the prior week with May 17th being our low and coincidentally a Bradley turn date, but the markets were still slightly mixed and trying to establish momentum. I also mentioned that on the technical side, all if not most of our ducks were in a row signaling a short term bottom was in place and all we may need was a catalyst in the form of good news to get us moving. I believe we got that and the highlight for the week was Oil where we heard from the Saudi's that production would rise with further confirmation of this as the week went on. That coupled with less bad news or lack thereof this week was taken as good news as well I believe.

So let's move on and review the Econ #'s for the week, another part of the puzzle that once again gave us a set of mixed #'s which has mostly been par for the course much of the year... Consumer Confidence slipped and Durable Orders plunged with Existing Home Sales on the rise and New Home Sales down considerably. The GDP was revised upward, Initial Jobless Claims ticked up by 3k with Personal Income rising slightly and Personal Spending slowing. Then Michigan Sentiment fell off and the Chicago PMI jumped higher. For the week to come we have Auto/Truck Sales, Construction Spending, ISM Index and Services, Productivity, Factory Orders and the all important Job #'s; Initial Claims, NonFarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate.

So what can we expect for the week to come? Well for starters it will be a shortened trading week and I believe we continue in a similar fashion as seen in the prior week; ups, downs, range like activity with an upward bias. I do not believe we will see any explosive moves and if so they will more than likely be a one day event. A lot of eyes will be watching and waiting for the unemployment #'s, especially NonFarm Payrolls. All of the major Indices ($INDU, $SPX, $COMPQ) are currently negotiating the 50DMA and testing the first real resistance levels created from past downtrends. As for the $COMPQ itself, there are 3 resistance levels to be dealt with; the 1990-2010 area, the 2050-2060 area and the 2080-2090 area.







Everybody stay safe and pay homage to veterans and those who gave their lives in the name of freedom and this great country