AI
Sunday, May 23, 2004 1:53:04 PM
Zeev, is this consistent with your analysis?
We are building up several overhead resistance points, and dropping.
It seems to me that the current down channel we are in needs to fail in the next two or three days, and we need to hold above that SR line at 1940 for by the end of the week. The 1861 SR line needs to hold now that we are coming out of oversold on the weekly. It would be nice for the bulls for this process to continue printing daily dojis and NR days while the BBs tighten. The 50d is getting close to a cross of the (now falling) 200d, and I don't think the bulls want to see that. On the bright side, we still have that island doji on the 17th which is the only sub-1890 close in this downtrend, and could mark a bottom. Next up would be that falling downtrend line which would be near 2000 by the time we get there, unless we have another parabolic, fuel-wasting, and doomed jump up into the falling BBs in the next week. Stochs look good for a slow rise while the RSI is looking a bit high here, one of the reasons we need a slow, grinding rise. Any fast jump up this week should fail in the 1980 region, and it would be a bad sign for the bulls IMO.
Starting a downtrend from here would run into a rising BB on the daily, so that downtrend would have to sit tight for a few days while the BBs tighten if it is to build up much momentum. The bears would love to see a spike up this week, providing that 1980 level holds. That gap resistance from the hammer in october has held so far, and a break of it would bring the mid 1700's into play. Guess I'd be surprised if that happens soon.
I have to agree with many that we are setting up for a nice IT bottom here as long as nothing ugly happens too slowly. That gently downtrend we are in could be a bull flag, could be a bull trap. I'm leaning toward the flag, but not strongly.
Daytrading here until there is some clear direction. It's been very good for my financial health but tough on my mental health doing so.
=P
We are building up several overhead resistance points, and dropping.
It seems to me that the current down channel we are in needs to fail in the next two or three days, and we need to hold above that SR line at 1940 for by the end of the week. The 1861 SR line needs to hold now that we are coming out of oversold on the weekly. It would be nice for the bulls for this process to continue printing daily dojis and NR days while the BBs tighten. The 50d is getting close to a cross of the (now falling) 200d, and I don't think the bulls want to see that. On the bright side, we still have that island doji on the 17th which is the only sub-1890 close in this downtrend, and could mark a bottom. Next up would be that falling downtrend line which would be near 2000 by the time we get there, unless we have another parabolic, fuel-wasting, and doomed jump up into the falling BBs in the next week. Stochs look good for a slow rise while the RSI is looking a bit high here, one of the reasons we need a slow, grinding rise. Any fast jump up this week should fail in the 1980 region, and it would be a bad sign for the bulls IMO.
Starting a downtrend from here would run into a rising BB on the daily, so that downtrend would have to sit tight for a few days while the BBs tighten if it is to build up much momentum. The bears would love to see a spike up this week, providing that 1980 level holds. That gap resistance from the hammer in october has held so far, and a break of it would bring the mid 1700's into play. Guess I'd be surprised if that happens soon.
I have to agree with many that we are setting up for a nice IT bottom here as long as nothing ugly happens too slowly. That gently downtrend we are in could be a bull flag, could be a bull trap. I'm leaning toward the flag, but not strongly.
Daytrading here until there is some clear direction. It's been very good for my financial health but tough on my mental health doing so.
=P
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