Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[langostino]

TJ - separating equipment and silicon

we have to separate concerns about the equipment cycle from concerns about the silicon cycle. They have very different characteristics (at least in my view they do). The equipment cycle can be lumpy, and there's no question the April numbers (absolute) look "spikey", but I wouldn't rule the cycle over just because there's a chance the delta of the delta goes down next month (which I view as almost an inevitability). As I said in the previous post, the 200 mm to 300 mm and particularly the .13 to .09 transitions are different than past transitions, and one could argue that "the masses" have only now begun to step up on them.

I'm no fan of the equipment names, although I'd be real surprised if they didn't put in one more run for the roses before the cycle rolls over. but I don't think that extends to silicon or its end markets. look for the equipment cycle to decellerate first and to fall more deeply into the hole than silicon.

BTW, I appreciate the links you've been providing. thx.