Biotech Values

[iwfal]

Let me rephrase: I don’t think Recothrom is going to reach the sales level that analysts and ZGEN bulls expected pre-launch. In other words, it’s likely going to be a commercial dog.

This is a shame because plasma-derived drugs are so twentieth century. But the numbers don’t lie—despite its merits there simply isn’t much demand for this product.

Ok, we disagree (which is fine completely fine and not meant to be confrontational -g-). As I said this is roughly in line with my expectations for Q2 on a path to >50% market share run rate by last month of this year (i.e. >$10M per month - in my last post I accidentally confused monthly with quarterly rates). A little low, but not hugely so given all the factoids about getting uptake (esp at hospitals):

a) Intro of spray kit and 20k vial only very late in the Q. (I made an allusion to you months ago that this late intro was going to really hold back and distort numbers in Q2 - which it did)

b) Delay inherent in getting on P&T committee meetings after first contact.

As a calibration of my expectations, I give it an 80% chance of greater than $35M in 09Q1.