AI
Monday, August 04, 2008 11:08:25 AM
Ok maybe about a day off I think. SPX is about to start the next leg of a 1-2 month sell off.
First we have to resolve 1230 which is fast approaching. No triple bottoms so its going to break the black trend channel at the red circle. Best case it bounces inside of the pink trend channel, most likely it will continue to follow the blue trend channel to lower ground.
EDIT: I'm thinking it might bounce at 1230 at the Fed statement or break down from there. Fed will sit on its hands again. Might do that for a while. Even with the CPI/PPI numbers as high as they are it improves the likely hood of them raising earlier but they want the market to expect it. They don't want a surprise hike. Prepare for the potential of 5-10-15% interest rates folks. Best way to get money supply to grow and people to beef up banks capital is to raise rates obscenely. And in order to do that you need to generate wicked inflation by creating a very long low rate environment. Volcker eat your heart out.
First we have to resolve 1230 which is fast approaching. No triple bottoms so its going to break the black trend channel at the red circle. Best case it bounces inside of the pink trend channel, most likely it will continue to follow the blue trend channel to lower ground.
EDIT: I'm thinking it might bounce at 1230 at the Fed statement or break down from there. Fed will sit on its hands again. Might do that for a while. Even with the CPI/PPI numbers as high as they are it improves the likely hood of them raising earlier but they want the market to expect it. They don't want a surprise hike. Prepare for the potential of 5-10-15% interest rates folks. Best way to get money supply to grow and people to beef up banks capital is to raise rates obscenely. And in order to do that you need to generate wicked inflation by creating a very long low rate environment. Volcker eat your heart out.
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