AI
Tuesday, May 18, 2004 11:47:20 PM
well Zeev - the setup is pretty good
(1) how many times have you heard or read commentary in the last couple weeks that we could not possibly go up from here because we have not seen a high-volume panic-type capitulative selloff to "define" the reversal point?
(2) how many times have you heard or read recently that we must see the sort of fear that looks like panic rather than just exhaustion and depression born of drip-drip-drip selling?
(3) is there anyone out there who hasn't given up hope of your late spring rally?
(4) are you not being openly derided, mocked and ripped daily for refusing to give up on a rally scenario?
(5) is there anyone who would believe this is a "real" rally even if we see another day or two of green?
(6) have we not been hearing people cavalierly toss around "$50 oil" as though it were virtually a fate accompli, and has not virtually every commentator suddenly run to the side of the boat declaring it unlikely that oil will ever go below $40 in the foreseeable future?
(7) excluding Fed Res., what would the ratio of times commentators talk of "crash" be relative to the number of times you hear people talk about "big rally"? (I'd say it's running at least 10:1)
I could go on but it would just be more of the same. We are extremes in just about every measure, yet the mood is such that everyone is discounting them anyway. Very much like the sentiment at a reversal top where everyone is staring right at the extremes (overbought, P/C, etc.), knowing they are extremes, but somehow thinking they don't matter and the market will just keep going up against them anyway.
You may turn out to be wrong, but I'd say you've got the perfect setup to be right.
(1) how many times have you heard or read commentary in the last couple weeks that we could not possibly go up from here because we have not seen a high-volume panic-type capitulative selloff to "define" the reversal point?
(2) how many times have you heard or read recently that we must see the sort of fear that looks like panic rather than just exhaustion and depression born of drip-drip-drip selling?
(3) is there anyone out there who hasn't given up hope of your late spring rally?
(4) are you not being openly derided, mocked and ripped daily for refusing to give up on a rally scenario?
(5) is there anyone who would believe this is a "real" rally even if we see another day or two of green?
(6) have we not been hearing people cavalierly toss around "$50 oil" as though it were virtually a fate accompli, and has not virtually every commentator suddenly run to the side of the boat declaring it unlikely that oil will ever go below $40 in the foreseeable future?
(7) excluding Fed Res., what would the ratio of times commentators talk of "crash" be relative to the number of times you hear people talk about "big rally"? (I'd say it's running at least 10:1)
I could go on but it would just be more of the same. We are extremes in just about every measure, yet the mood is such that everyone is discounting them anyway. Very much like the sentiment at a reversal top where everyone is staring right at the extremes (overbought, P/C, etc.), knowing they are extremes, but somehow thinking they don't matter and the market will just keep going up against them anyway.
You may turn out to be wrong, but I'd say you've got the perfect setup to be right.
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