Ander's Market Theories

[AnderL]

The jobs numbers are going to be very ugly this week, and probably GDP to boot. My guess is any funds that got a double or triple off the Financials bottoming out are taking those profits. Airlines, Banks Brokers are all down yet again. Been hearing some funds telling people that they already should be nibbling on financials. My guess is that they will fall about 60% off the the recent highs just after the 52 week lows.

I'd venture to say that an exit of long positions or short of the market before the open on the 31 will be good as the selling will continue from there and deep into the week.

Jul 29	10:00 AM	Consumer Confidence	Jul	-	50.0	50.0	50.4	- 
 Jul 30	8:15 AM	ADP Employment	Jul	-	-	-60K	-79K	- 
 Jul 30	10:35 AM	Crude Inventories	07/26	-	NA	NA	-1558K	- 
 Jul 31	8:30 AM	Chain Deflator-Adv.	Q2	-	2.7%	2.3%	2.7%	- 
 Jul 31	8:30 AM	Employment Cost Index	Q2	-	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%	- 
 Jul 31	8:30 AM	GDP-Adv.	Q2	-	2.8%	2.3%	1.0%	- 
 Jul 31	8:30 AM	Initial Claims	07/26	-	380K	395K	406K	- 
 Jul 31	9:45 AM	Chicago PMI	Jul	-	50.1	49.0	49.6	- 
 Aug 1	12:00 AM	Auto Sales	Jul	-	5.0M	NA	4.9M	- 
 Aug 1	12:00 AM	Truck Sales	Jul	-	5.0M	NA	5.0M	- 
 Aug 1	8:30 AM	Average Workweek	Jul	-	33.8	33.7	33.7	- 
 Aug 1	8:30 AM	Hourly Earnings	Jul	-	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	- 
 Aug 1	8:30 AM	Nonfarm Payrolls	Jul	-	-55K	-75K	-62K	- 
 Aug 1	8:30 AM	Unemployment Rate	Jul	-	5.5%	5.6%	5.5%	- 
 Aug 1	10:00 AM	Construction Spending	Jun	-	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.4%	- 
 Aug 1	10:00 AM	ISM Index	Jul	-	50.5	49.2	50.2	-

Reminds me of the tech fallout. After the 2001 bounce they fell another 60% off those peeks. I'm still looking at 2009 maybe even 2010 before financials recover.

Next week is the FOMC statement so they might surge the markets just because. Probably saving all the injections for that point. Shake some more shorts out of the market and make the bounce look big. that will probably start Fri close. I'll start looking for buying action about then.