O/T The recent discussions here have been largely spurred by recent intervention in the markets by the Fed, the SEC, and the US Treasury.
This intervention is actually making those of us who trade for a living a little unnerved, as it screws up our models. Those who have the benefit of being privy to the new policies and who they will favor profit, but those of us who do not are left to twist when they whip the rug out from under us and make us react.
As for right wing or left wing, I really am not a bird, so I can't relate to that. What I am seeing is frustration from Americans who have seen their standing in the world diminish, new emerging rivals flourish, and a flat standard of living for the past 8-years.
Meanwhile, our government of the people, by the people, for the people seems to have lost one or two of those principles.
Some of the changes are the result of fragmented constituencies. The unions no longer have the power they once had, and low paying service workers do not often share traits with the old manufacturing guard. Meanwhile, well funded interest groups and donors are gaining strength.
In the end I believe one of the larger issues we are struggling over is what is a rightful entitlement and what is a safety net.
From the constitution, our entitlements are pretty clear. Over the years as the old generation has died out and the new ones emerge, what were once safety nets began to be viewed as entitlements. I believe that is one of the struggles that is causing much of the disillusionment with many of the government policies, as the discretionary spending portion of the US Federal budget keeps getting smaller every year while the social safety net portions keep getting larger. This is making taxation and income distribution a larger issue, as the US budget is in perpetual deficit regardless of what the Clinton administration might suggest, and it is going to be more expensive to fund the safety nets in the future.
I leave you with two very high probabilities. One, Obama will be the next President of the United States.
Two, the one after him will be a two term Republican.
If you take Nixon out of the equation, voters tend to vote their pocketbooks. Presidential election is largely a function of the business cycle, although the beer test is also a key element <G>
I also think the approval of Congress will be above the current 9% level next year. Going back, I seem to recall the 9% area as a very strong level of support, so we should see a re-trace back up from that area.
Good trading!
AI
