AI
Thursday, July 24, 2008 11:01:06 PM
POT Canary in the market…..
My concern at this juncture for the overall market comes from today’s POT volume bar. In my estimate POT and the (fert group all function in tandem) hold a unique and specific position in the pantheon of companies. Their future growth and success is directly tied with any population graph, and every graph I’ve seen short of pandemic is a moon shot for the next 2 decades. I know that, the street knows that. It’s like a treasury with a phenomenal growth rate attached. I would assume many funds and hedge funds are long the group. When people throw away the safety deposit box it is not a sign of the fundamentals it is signal of the need for liquidity in the market and as we know when everyone is on one side of the boat ……exit gets tight.
Grant me for discussion purposes this premise POT (the group) is the streets savings account and today many showed their hand. When they tap their savings it shows the markets in trouble/need/in fear. Notice the two magenta boxes and their indicators targeting two large volume bars. I ran a line thru them. Notice that almost ALL indicators are at the same level notice that both times occur after few days down in POT and more importantly notice the relationship and wave structure of the SPX in purple behind Price to that line. In my humble estimate someone just flushed. I can be 100% wrong but at this juncture capital preservation must guide my hand.
As to targets for POT they are marked the `145-155 area is replete with bull eyes. 25% retrace (per Bulkowski on HS in Bears) this study 31 % retrace from the Jan low, standard ways of measuring HS breaks, AJ’s experience 145 they all congregate in the 15 point area….POT will cover 15 points in a day . Also noted is extreme gap sightings just in case ( I’ve lacked imagination for lows these recent days). Secondly and more important this flush can last to 3-5 days. Which on the extrem side 5 days would call bottom in the markets on fri next week with a low /recover Mon 2 weeks from now. Another possible is 29/30 which is near JQ turning point.With a touch back the next Mon.
POT in my estimate will recover but it will undergo PE compression as all market issues will in a long Bear. IMHO
Just Learning and posting out loud
My concern at this juncture for the overall market comes from today’s POT volume bar. In my estimate POT and the (fert group all function in tandem) hold a unique and specific position in the pantheon of companies. Their future growth and success is directly tied with any population graph, and every graph I’ve seen short of pandemic is a moon shot for the next 2 decades. I know that, the street knows that. It’s like a treasury with a phenomenal growth rate attached. I would assume many funds and hedge funds are long the group. When people throw away the safety deposit box it is not a sign of the fundamentals it is signal of the need for liquidity in the market and as we know when everyone is on one side of the boat ……exit gets tight.
Grant me for discussion purposes this premise POT (the group) is the streets savings account and today many showed their hand. When they tap their savings it shows the markets in trouble/need/in fear. Notice the two magenta boxes and their indicators targeting two large volume bars. I ran a line thru them. Notice that almost ALL indicators are at the same level notice that both times occur after few days down in POT and more importantly notice the relationship and wave structure of the SPX in purple behind Price to that line. In my humble estimate someone just flushed. I can be 100% wrong but at this juncture capital preservation must guide my hand.
As to targets for POT they are marked the `145-155 area is replete with bull eyes. 25% retrace (per Bulkowski on HS in Bears) this study 31 % retrace from the Jan low, standard ways of measuring HS breaks, AJ’s experience 145 they all congregate in the 15 point area….POT will cover 15 points in a day . Also noted is extreme gap sightings just in case ( I’ve lacked imagination for lows these recent days). Secondly and more important this flush can last to 3-5 days. Which on the extrem side 5 days would call bottom in the markets on fri next week with a low /recover Mon 2 weeks from now. Another possible is 29/30 which is near JQ turning point.With a touch back the next Mon.
POT in my estimate will recover but it will undergo PE compression as all market issues will in a long Bear. IMHO
Just Learning and posting out loud
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