It is evolving differently than I expected it might... in that the shares are not being allowed to drift down more or less aimlessly while having upside potential capped...
It is deviating from the TMY model I used to predict it might drift down below $0.33...
The trading range has been narrowed even more today... to a range of $0.39 to $0.40. That should tend to pretty thoroughly wring out the interest of day traders in using the volatility, and if the range is sustained next week... the focus here will change from analysis of the daily share price changes to a focus on the fundamentals: the contest for control, the resolution of the debt issues. Note that the narrowing in the trading range was combined with half a million shares accumulated today... and over a million in the last three days???
It looks like if you want to play this for a bounce, you aren't going to be able to wait for a lower low... and the chart has pretty dramatically carved out a bottoming formation.
I "suspect" that there is already a built in capability to move the share price higher from here... that likely will not wait in that effort until AFTER the 29th. There is a chance that the average price note holders will get in the five days up to the 29th... will be much higher than $0.40 ???
I note, from the filing linked in the prior post, that the company sold almost a million shares after the prior filing. Did they sell them at $2 or at $0.75 ??? How much of the cash on hand could the company use to buy shares rather than debt ?
Did the company's financial advisors short the shares to get them down to the price we see here... and now have the ability to use the profits from those short trades to move share prices back up to where they were when they were shorted?
The risks here seem pretty well known... what seems less well considered is the potential for better than expected outcomes in the negotiations.... or the market contests... that might treat the company and the shareholders rather better than the market is anticipating ???
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