GTC Biotherapeutics (fka GTCB)

[DewDiligence]

Re: GTC-Pharming merger

Such a deal nearly happened during early 2006, after the initial EMEA rejection of ATryn and before the EMEA approval on appeal.

A marriage of the two leaders in drugs produced using transgenic animals has always made sense from a business standpoint, IMO. However, there are three obstacles to consummating such a deal: a) agreeing on valuation; b) reconciling differences in corporate culture; and c) deciding who runs the merged company (it can’t have two CEO’s).

My unsubstantiated opinion is that b) and c) have been larger impediments to a deal than a), although the wide swings in the market cap of each company have made a) a significant challenge in its own right.

Assuming for the sake of discussion that GTC agrees to merger or acquisition with someone during the next 12 months, I would say that a deal with Pharming, specifically, has a probability of 60%.