I've followed you into a number of your "This is it" can't miss plays...and there but for the grace of God made it out of the house fires alive.
You'll usually have part of the equation right,,, but after further dd you will typically miss the BIG piece of the puzzle. (ADTD and CYOS come to mind)
I could poke holes through this stock right now but I will reserve judement only because I'm on the sidelines.