AI
Saturday, May 08, 2004 5:13:23 PM
dan, gold cots recently have been showing big reductions in long positions. but i'm still watching ... as i said in jan, i'm thinking that late summer might be a next opportunity, since - if i remember right - that time is seasonally weak for gold (because of indian buying?) but it all really depends on macro conditions.
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(maximize your screen)
Hi TJ,
Interesting that you should say that!
Was just looking at the gold CoT chart pictured below.....
I found the contraction in the net long number of small bullish specs (yellow line) in the COMEX Gold Futures coupled with the 'smart money' commercial longs increasing their positions by some 55% during the past month cause to give birth to some renewed hope that the downleg is close to running it;s course.
That the Commercials net long % has almost doubled (16% to 31%)in the past month is also worth noting, methinks.
" as i said in jan, i'm thinking that late summer might be a next opportunity, since - if i remember right - that time is seasonally weak for gold (because of indian buying?) but it all really depends on macro conditions."
I'm not sure if that early summer thingy is necessarily a truism, TJ, as I tend to think most people have been indoctinated to that view of gold's early summer weakness by the following chart of seasonal gold prices. If one considers that the great majority of the years covered (1974-2002) were during bear markets, would it not make sense that bull markets may be different?
And now, the rest of the story!
As only Rod Serling could say,
"submitted for your approval" .... a modern day view which has split the 2000-2003 golden years moving averages from the rest of the pack:
Do you find that as surprising ..... as I did?
===============================================================
(maximize your screen)
Hi TJ,
Interesting that you should say that!
Was just looking at the gold CoT chart pictured below.....
I found the contraction in the net long number of small bullish specs (yellow line) in the COMEX Gold Futures coupled with the 'smart money' commercial longs increasing their positions by some 55% during the past month cause to give birth to some renewed hope that the downleg is close to running it;s course.
That the Commercials net long % has almost doubled (16% to 31%)in the past month is also worth noting, methinks.
" as i said in jan, i'm thinking that late summer might be a next opportunity, since - if i remember right - that time is seasonally weak for gold (because of indian buying?) but it all really depends on macro conditions."
I'm not sure if that early summer thingy is necessarily a truism, TJ, as I tend to think most people have been indoctinated to that view of gold's early summer weakness by the following chart of seasonal gold prices. If one considers that the great majority of the years covered (1974-2002) were during bear markets, would it not make sense that bull markets may be different?
And now, the rest of the story!
As only Rod Serling could say,
"submitted for your approval" .... a modern day view which has split the 2000-2003 golden years moving averages from the rest of the pack:
Do you find that as surprising ..... as I did?
Dan 
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