Tuesday, July 01, 2008 10:05:13 PM
***Tomorrow, a new IRBL run up should start. Here's why:
(Wanted to post this here, but somehow I posted it elsewhere - in two pieces).
W/o any bad news to talk about, the move since last week was clearly the usual 50% drop (after reaching 0.0032), followed by consolidation. Another run up should follos. This is becoming the norm. The fact that it moved a bit today means the consolidation is at or near its end, so the run-up should start tomorrow or in a few days in the worse case. This assuming no news. Some news could start the run up as soon as they are out (becaue they are so rare, in this case, it doesn't really matter how consistent they are), and migh prompt a multi-MOMO move.
I base the above on:
1. As usual, naked shorting has played a good role in the price drop over the last several days. See the large increase (percentage-wise) in short interest:
Short Interest (Shares Short) 130,500
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 0.3
Short Percent of Float 0.14%
Short Interest - Prior 2,100
Short % Increase / Decrease 6114.29%
http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=irbl&submit=Short+Quote%99
2. Whomever does the shorting, thereafter (in all cases) uses a few wash sales to lower the price, so they could cover at the lower cost. The shorters play does not end here. While covering their shorted shares, they also buy (at a discount) some extra shares.
3. The small s/p increase toward the EOD today tells me the shorts have near finished covering their shorted shares, and bought enough (since they short many stocks, they usually do not load as many as some of us do). At this point in time, of course, the former shorters will push the price up (expect to see some low volume buys at the Ask tomorrow - it's how they do it). Plus, any remaining small number of uncovered shares should help with the usual mini-squeeze they produce. The pumpers will do the rest.
So, as everything seems to be in place, let the new run-up begin!
Mike
(Wanted to post this here, but somehow I posted it elsewhere - in two pieces).
W/o any bad news to talk about, the move since last week was clearly the usual 50% drop (after reaching 0.0032), followed by consolidation. Another run up should follos. This is becoming the norm. The fact that it moved a bit today means the consolidation is at or near its end, so the run-up should start tomorrow or in a few days in the worse case. This assuming no news. Some news could start the run up as soon as they are out (becaue they are so rare, in this case, it doesn't really matter how consistent they are), and migh prompt a multi-MOMO move.
I base the above on:
1. As usual, naked shorting has played a good role in the price drop over the last several days. See the large increase (percentage-wise) in short interest:
Short Interest (Shares Short) 130,500
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 0.3
Short Percent of Float 0.14%
Short Interest - Prior 2,100
Short % Increase / Decrease 6114.29%
http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=irbl&submit=Short+Quote%99
2. Whomever does the shorting, thereafter (in all cases) uses a few wash sales to lower the price, so they could cover at the lower cost. The shorters play does not end here. While covering their shorted shares, they also buy (at a discount) some extra shares.
3. The small s/p increase toward the EOD today tells me the shorts have near finished covering their shorted shares, and bought enough (since they short many stocks, they usually do not load as many as some of us do). At this point in time, of course, the former shorters will push the price up (expect to see some low volume buys at the Ask tomorrow - it's how they do it). Plus, any remaining small number of uncovered shares should help with the usual mini-squeeze they produce. The pumpers will do the rest.
So, as everything seems to be in place, let the new run-up begin!
Mike
