> With pure R&D plays, have to value the projects as bets in light of the latest info, past setbacks very much included and the probabilities of future setbacks or progress taken into account, right?<
In the context of a clinical setback, I draw a distinction between biotech companies with an ample in-house drug-discovery engine, who can bounce back quickly (e.g. IDIX), and “virtual” biotech companies who have to go out and license something to get back in the game. Mishaps for the latter kinds of companies (e.g. YMI) tend to be far more damaging.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”