The Black Box

[wahz]

If we don't turn back around and get above the most recent high surrounding the fed, we are going to bottom as expected in June, but it could be as low as 1865. Without a bigger pop or another pop, the moving averages just aren't coming up fast enough to support 1897 as the low...right now the lowest support is around 1855....then that ma is going to be tested during the summer, so there would be considerably less pain if we don't fall apart completely here...Say an August retest would be around 1940-2000 instead of 1870-1920.

For many many reasons I wish I had hollered, "Get out now, next stop the 300 ma in summer!" on Jan 17th. I came close, but had convinced myself that the communication spending rebound was upon us and so that would be the driver and our stocks wouldn't fall apart, despite a bad retrenchment. Boy was I terribly wrong.