Acusphere Inc (ACUS)

[keithhpkns]

I'm taking a whack at doing some fair value Acusphere math. I want to let you know though that I am not an expert on this. Here is what I am assuming, approx. 50 million shares, NDA gets accepted within about a week, and they partner with a large pharmacutical company for the American rights to imagify who will pay them an upfront payment of lets just say 30 million to help them get through the PDUFA date and thereafter a 25% royalty on imagify sales.

The above may or may not be totally off what happens. I assume that NDA acceptance by the FDA and 30 million upfront payment will be enough to get this above 1 dollar which will then wipe away fears of the R/S followed by massive dilution.

Okay, now the math...

With over 2 billion in possible annual sales in the US, I'm going to assume that the large sales force behind whatever company we partner with will be able to claim 50% of the market by 2014, or about 5 years after FDA approval. So 50% of 2 billion is 1 billion dollars. But, Acusphere gets only 25% royalty so that would be 250 million dollars. I'm going to assume that our annual costs are 100 million dollars, leaving us with 150 million dollars in annual profit. Divide 150 million dollars by 50 million shares and we get an EPS of 3 bucks a share. Multiply 3 bucks by a P/E ratio of 20 and we get $60 bucks per share in 2014.

Now keep in mind that I did not take into consideration the Asian markets, European markets, all off label uses, and assumed we were to get only half of the market share by 2014.

So the value I came up with is $60 bucks per share by 2014, or a little over a 100 bagger in 6 years. Thoughts???