Sunday, June 15, 2008 11:29:48 AM
hmmmm....nice chart weasy
please excuse this long reply....thinking outloud helps me a lot.
the bullish case
i turned bullish in march and made some coin and i am still bullish as long as the dow contiues to make higher lows...(above the uptrend line on the first chart)....that's why i have been trying to use the fibs on the dow chart for an entry....that hasn't worked out so far....the only fib left is the 78% and that's not available at SC....if i did the math right the 78% fib is at 11950....that just happens to be where the uptrend line is parked at too.....to go along with that bullish slant,other idecies charts seem to be reacting to the fibs better (charts below).....as for the $nya50r... i added a trendline to that chart/indicator (thanks da)and i could see the rally continue without a visit to 20 land.....
i think i am going to play the spx this time around...that or a large cap mutual fund....why have the large caps been beat down so much more?
now for the bearish case
how in the hell can there be a bottom forming with commodities going thru the roof? the drag on the consumer has to take a toll on the bottom line for many companies...
my answer to that is in the dollar charts....these charts sure look like they are reversing to this rookie...the fed >has< to stop cutting rates due to inflation (IMO) and may even have to change horses sometime in the near future and start raising rates....if the dollar rallies, commods will tank and the talking heads will play that up in a BIG way....they won't mention the fact that a rising dollar should also hurt the stock market....soooo everyone will feel better about paying $3 at the pump and all will be right with the world...lol.....anyway...that's how i see it playing out buTT i don't know shit
please excuse this long reply....thinking outloud helps me a lot.
the bullish case
i turned bullish in march and made some coin and i am still bullish as long as the dow contiues to make higher lows...(above the uptrend line on the first chart)....that's why i have been trying to use the fibs on the dow chart for an entry....that hasn't worked out so far....the only fib left is the 78% and that's not available at SC....if i did the math right the 78% fib is at 11950....that just happens to be where the uptrend line is parked at too.....to go along with that bullish slant,other idecies charts seem to be reacting to the fibs better (charts below).....as for the $nya50r... i added a trendline to that chart/indicator (thanks da)and i could see the rally continue without a visit to 20 land.....
i think i am going to play the spx this time around...that or a large cap mutual fund....why have the large caps been beat down so much more?
now for the bearish case
how in the hell can there be a bottom forming with commodities going thru the roof? the drag on the consumer has to take a toll on the bottom line for many companies...
my answer to that is in the dollar charts....these charts sure look like they are reversing to this rookie...the fed >has< to stop cutting rates due to inflation (IMO) and may even have to change horses sometime in the near future and start raising rates....if the dollar rallies, commods will tank and the talking heads will play that up in a BIG way....they won't mention the fact that a rising dollar should also hurt the stock market....soooo everyone will feel better about paying $3 at the pump and all will be right with the world...lol.....anyway...that's how i see it playing out buTT i don't know shit
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