AI
Definitely risk/reward is favourable, imo. That's what I was thinking when I entered my position a few days ago.
Care to imagine with Imagify? Pull up a 10y chart for CELG.
"While somber reflection may be in order on this 4th anniversary, investors may also recall that the start of the war also ended a biotech bear market and opened an IPO window that had been shut for three years. The first IPO of the new window (which is still open) was Acusphere, which while clearly underperforming by any measure, nevertheless tapped the equity markets (and several more times since) to fund its business plan and execute its strategy. So far, shareholders have taken the pain, but apart from Imagify's delayed NDA filing (par for the course in this business), Acusphere has done what it said it would, and most importantly, retained all U.S. marketing rights, which we suspect may ultimately be valued by an order of magnitude greater than what investors can buy ACUS stock for today. While Wall Street seems to love to own stocks where management owns 100% of the earnings potential (nearly a decade ago, we wrote the first report recommending Celgene (CELG) when the valuation was the same as ACUS before FDA approved Thalomid for Leprosy - talk about a tough sell to Wall Street!), in this market, investors seem to have been content to stay on the sidelines and revisit the story when NDA filing has better visibility. Well that visibility is now, in our view, with P3 results expected in Q2 and NDA filing expected in Q4. Sure, we're still a few years for revenue visibility and perhaps 3-4 before earnings visibility, but what's the downside from here? We're not suggesting that ACUS will follow the same path as CELG, moving from $100M to $20B in a decade, but $100M to $1B in five years, with a likely exit strategy from a hungry new health care giant such as GE where Imagify could be a very nice high volume, high margin consumable to fit with GE's installed diagnostic hardware base. That makes a lot of sense to us."
http://www.wrhambrecht.com/research/pharm/acus.html
Drink What The Lion Drinks
Care to imagine with Imagify? Pull up a 10y chart for CELG.
"While somber reflection may be in order on this 4th anniversary, investors may also recall that the start of the war also ended a biotech bear market and opened an IPO window that had been shut for three years. The first IPO of the new window (which is still open) was Acusphere, which while clearly underperforming by any measure, nevertheless tapped the equity markets (and several more times since) to fund its business plan and execute its strategy. So far, shareholders have taken the pain, but apart from Imagify's delayed NDA filing (par for the course in this business), Acusphere has done what it said it would, and most importantly, retained all U.S. marketing rights, which we suspect may ultimately be valued by an order of magnitude greater than what investors can buy ACUS stock for today. While Wall Street seems to love to own stocks where management owns 100% of the earnings potential (nearly a decade ago, we wrote the first report recommending Celgene (CELG) when the valuation was the same as ACUS before FDA approved Thalomid for Leprosy - talk about a tough sell to Wall Street!), in this market, investors seem to have been content to stay on the sidelines and revisit the story when NDA filing has better visibility. Well that visibility is now, in our view, with P3 results expected in Q2 and NDA filing expected in Q4. Sure, we're still a few years for revenue visibility and perhaps 3-4 before earnings visibility, but what's the downside from here? We're not suggesting that ACUS will follow the same path as CELG, moving from $100M to $20B in a decade, but $100M to $1B in five years, with a likely exit strategy from a hungry new health care giant such as GE where Imagify could be a very nice high volume, high margin consumable to fit with GE's installed diagnostic hardware base. That makes a lot of sense to us."
http://www.wrhambrecht.com/research/pharm/acus.html
Drink What The Lion Drinks
