Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

>> I couldn't disagree with you more on the tarceva data. When you take into account it's a median number, some have virtually no response while others are outliers with tremendous responses, the drug is a major advance. <<

I agree that the median may not be the best indicator of the clinical benefit, but you are assuming that the Tarceva arm had significant “outliers” to a greater extent than the placebo arm.

We do not know that yet!

It is quite possible that the respective survival curves for the Tarceva and placebo arms separate nicely at the 50% level (which is used to calculate the median survival) and then quickly collapse on one another. E.g., at the point on the curves where, say, 10% of patients are still alive, the Tarceva curve may have no little or no incremental duration relative to the placebo curve. We will know more when the detailed data are released at ASCO, but I think it’s premature to declare that Tarceva is a “major advance.”

Finally, I must correct your statement about Genentech. I think they are a great company –my beef is with the colossal valuation. Regards, Dew