A need for cash sure isn’t a good predictor of any possible buyout. Lack of cash is probably only a good predictor of a future equity sale.
Cash isn't a good way to determine a buyout price, revenue is better, but pipeline and potential are of course key.
But cash and the ability to raise cash is a sure indication of what the market and BP partners think about the value of the pipeline and overall potential. Look at most companies (not REST) that have been acquired, they usually had big partners and they had an easy time raising cash.
I am not sure why the market and more importantly, other partners, determine GTC's potential to be so far below what most posters on the board think it should be. Hard to have that sort of discussion, one has to look for all the negatives, which most posters are reluctant to do. Maybe it is that most of GTC drugs aren't patentable, meaning parts of the process to develop the drugs are patentable, but not the drug itself. Nothing special about ATryn, the ability to produce a lot of ATryn at a lower cost is what is special. The market likes to compare valuations to similar companies, are there any other companies where the process of producing non-patented drugs is their main business?
I know some posters claimed that this (GTC working on producing existing proteins like rhFVIIa) should make GTC less risky, but that thinking sure hasn’t played out.
And when you start to analyze a company from a survival point of view, then cash, debt levels become key and the pipeline isn't nearly as significant. So what level GTC could drop to if real panic set in will usually be determined by cash levels.
Right now the move up in GTC could be just short covering from the recent shorting at the 0.62 area. The volume isn't really high enough to indicate any big move up.
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