Hi shorts - I think you missed the point of my posts. It's not a question of where a stock has been. It's a question of where it is going.
Oil certainly looks like it's going up more. The trend says that. However, at least as many analysts and, in particular, contrarians, say it's a bubble. I really don't care about that and don't pretend to be so wise as to be the only one who is right. In fact, it's often a good idea to hedge a bet by shorting an index fund. Others like puts and calls, but I find being on the writing side is where the consistent money lies.
My desire is always to find something that is undervalued and to see if it can be traded or held. To that extent, I wondered why the yield here is so high and what the issues were both positive and negative.
You seem to be up on the positive arguments and they are compelling. However, as I suggested, every stock has a corresponding negative side and this one certainly has that as I have posted.
It all comes down to deciding whether the potential for continuing dividend and hopefully gains is worth the risk of loss as a result of possible decline in share price, reduction in dividend, tax problems or even possible liability from owning the shares.
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