Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[marketmaven]

"Streched Valuation" at JNPR priced at Over 50X Merrill's '05 EPS with NSCN- Integration risk high IMTO

Merrill- "Based on guidance given by the company on the conference call and some of our background work on NetScreen, we have built a first cut consolidated earnings model for Juniper + NetScreen. - We expect to revise this over the next few days, as we further analyze the implications of purchase accounting on the NetScreen acquisition and our revised views on the security market opportunity. Based on our follow-up discussions with management, they recognize that these purchase accounting figures are preliminary figures and are subject to change. - Based on our model, and including the effects of purchase accounting regulations, we estimate 2Q04 sales to be $274.5mn, and pro-forma EPS of $0.04. - For FY04, we are forecasting an EPS of $0.32, compared to our existing (Juniper-only) estimate of $0.31, and for FY05, our new estimates are $0.48 versus earlier estimates of $0.34. - We maintain our Neutral rating given a stretched valuation at 54x revised CY05 estimates. More importantly, we highlight the execution risk in integrating the NetScreen acquisition, particularly with management changes and some departures from the former NetScreen team. "