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Tuesday, April 20, 2004 9:12:47 PM
From Briefing.com: 6:31PM Tuesday After Hours prices levels vs. 4 pm ET: The tone of trading has improved some following today's slide on Greenspan's testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. Presently, the S&P futures, at 1117, are flat with fair value, and the Nasdaq 100 futures, at 1144, are 5 points above fair value. A much better than expected March quarter report from Motorola (MOT) has reinvigorated buying efforts.
The below table lays out Motorola's announcement, as well as other notable earnings reports of the evening:
After Hours Mover % Change Move Reason for Move
Applied Micro Circuits (00C0) +5% Semiconductor company reports Q1 (Mar) breakeven (consensus of a loss of $0.01) on sales that rose 24% to $47.4 mln (consensus of $44.8 mln); On its call, Applied Micro guides Q2 (June) revenues to the 'high 50s' (consensus of $52.2 mln) and margins to 63-64%
Career Education (CECO) +6% Post secondary education provider easily surpasses the consensus top and bottom-line estimates in its Q1 (Mar) report; New student starts surged 83% and led management to forecast a 52% increase in total student population by Apr 30; Company also guides Q2 (June) and FY04 (Dec) EPS and revenues well above market expectations
Internet Security (ISSX) -9% Computer service company reports flat Q1 (Mar) profits of $0.13 per share - in line with their upside guidance of $0.13-0.14 - but below the Street's estimate of $0.14; Company also issues Q2 (June) and FY04 (Dec) targets that are more weighted towards the low-end of analyst estimates; Management actually ended up lowering its FY04 EPS outlook
Motorola (MOT) +23% In a huge surprise to analysts, handset maker reports Q1 (Mar) EPS that was more than twice that of the consensus estimate; Sales also made a mockery of forecasts, rising 42% to $8.56 bln (consensus of $6.76 bln); On its call, Motorola says Q2 (June) handset sales should rise 60-80%, Company appears to be stealing share from Nokia (NOK), which warned for both Q1 (Mar) and Q2 (June)
Sanmina (SANM) +4% Electronic manufacturing service (EMS) name beats the Reuters Research EPS estimate by a penny on revenues that matched expectations; Company issues in-line earnings and sales ranges; Stock gets a nice pop after selling off 6% today; Other EMS providers - CLS, FLEX, JBL, and SLR - also get a boost
Seagate Tech (STX) unch Beleaguered storage device maker - which warned three times during the Q1 (Mar) period - reports final EPS of $0.07 (down 81%) on revenues that declined 14% to $1.39 bln; The latter item was short of the Street's estimate of $1.43 bln; Management says it will wait to the week of June 1 to deliver an update on business conditions citing (among other things) 'continued aggressive pricing in core markets'
Walt Disney (DIS) unch According to the NY Times, Disney has made major management changes at ABC; Company will fire both the chairman, Lloyd Braun, and the president, Susan Lyne - the latter in a surprise move considering Disney President Robert Iger's endorsement of her at a Bear Stearns conference last month; Disney is under pressure to turn around its operations in light of Comcast's (CMCSA) lingering offer
Tomorrow, Fed Chairman Greenspan will testify in front of Congress for a second day in a row - this time, in front of the Joint Economic Committee at 10 ET. If today's action is any indication, the market will be fairly attuned to any comments about inflation/interest rates. Earnings reports from 5 Dow components (Coke, Ford, Honeywell, JP Morgan, and United Technologies) should also grab the market's attention.
For more detail on these, and other developments, be sure to visit our Stock Market Update and Daily Sector Wrap. -- Heather Smith, Briefing.com
6:34PM Teradyne beats by $0.05 (TER) 22.24 -0.82: Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.20 per share, $0.05 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.15; revenues rose 28.7% year/year to $430.6 mln vs the $421.0 mln consensus.
5:35PM Seagate Tech says unable to provide guidance (STX) 14.51 -0.01: -- Update -- In the press release, STX says it's unable to provide earnings guidance due to challenging environment and numerous factors, including longer product cycles, continued aggressive pricing in core markets and ongoing changes in how STX and the industry serve the distribution channel. Co. plans to deliver an update on industry conditions and its operating performance during the week of June 1, 2004.
5:02PM Genus Inc misses by 2 cents (GGNS) 3.37 +0.01: Co reports Q1 EPS of ($0.04), $0.02 worse than consensus of ($0.02); revs were $12.2 mln, vs consensus of $13.3 mln.
4:55PM Sirenza Micro beats by $0.02, ex items (SMDI) 4.70 -0.15: Reports Q1 (Mar) management-adjusted net income of $663,000 or earnings of $0.02 per diluted share, excluding charges, $0.02 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.00; revenues rose 137.9% year/year to $13.8 mln vs the $13.1 mln consensus.
4:46PM Cymer beats by $0.02 (CYMI) 36.19 +0.04: Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.19 per share, $0.02 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.17; revenues rose 30.5% year/year to $87.9 mln vs the $83.5 mln consensus.
4:36PM Storage Tech reports in line; reaffirms Y04 (STK) 27.69 +0.48: Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.21 per share, in line with the Reuters Research consensus of $0.21; revenues rose 7.3% year/year to $515.1 mln vs the $518.4 mln consensus. Co states, "At this point we are on track to deliver the results we anticipated as we entered 2004".
4:33PM Silicon Image beats by a penny (SIMG) 12.70 -0.63: Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.06 per share, $0.01 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.05; revenues rose 45.3% year/year to $35.9 mln vs the $34.6 mln consensus.
4:30PM MKS Instruments beats by $0.09, ex items, guides Q2 above consensus (MKSI) 20.94 -0.93: Reports Q1 (Mar) non-GAAP earnings of $0.31 per share, excluding amortization of acquired intangible assets and other special items, $0.09 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.22; revenues rose 82.7% year/year to $133.0 mln vs the $123.1 mln consensus. Co also guides, sees non-GAAP Q2 EPS of $0.35-0.43 (ex items), vs the R.R. consensus of $0.28.
4:28PM Sanmina-SCI beats by a penny, ex items, guides inline (SANM) 10.19 -0.60: Reports Q2 (Mar) earnings of $0.05 per share, ex items, $0.01 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.04; revenues rose 17.1% year/year to $2.86 bln vs the $2.86 bln consensus. Co sees Q3 EPS of $0.05-0.07 vs $0.06 Reuters Research consensus on revs of $2.9-3.1 bln, consensus $3.02 bln
4:26PM MKSI prelim $0.31 ex-items, 9 cents ahead
4:25PM Motorola beats by $0.12, guides higher (MOT) 16.22 -0.48: Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.19 per share, which excludes $0.065 in gains, $0.12 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.07; revenues rose 41.7% year/year to $8.56 bln vs the $6.76 bln consensus. Company sees Q2 EPS of $0.14-0.18 vs consensus of $0.09 on revenues of $8.2-8.6 bln, consensus $6.92 bln
4:15PM Seagate Tech reports in line, ex items, light on revs (STX) 14.52 -0.27: Reports Q3 (Mar) earnings of $0.07 per share, excluding items, in line with the Reuters Research consensus of $0.07; revenues fell 14.3% year/year to $1.39 bln vs the $1.43 bln consensus.
4:04PM Pericom Semi beats by $0.01, ex items, guides Q4 revs in line (PSEM) 10.75 +0.25: Reports Q3 (Mar) net of breakeven, $0.01 better than the Reuters Research consensus of ($0.01); revenues rose 60.7% year/year to $18.5 mln vs the $18.3 mln consensus. Co also guides Q4, sees revenues of $19.75-20.3 mln, vs the R.R. estimate of $20.0 mln.
Close Dow -123.35 at 10,314.50, S&P -17.73 at 1,118.09, Nasdaq -41.80 at 1,978.63: Stocks went into a mild panic today over the prospect of higher interest rates...the underlying anxiety broke through in the afternoon when Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan made what could easily have been interpreted as mild, even obvious, comments...he said that the financial system is well positioned to deal with higher interest rates...this doesn't mean that the Fed is going to raise rates soon or sharply, but the assumption that rates will move higher nevertheless raised fears among investors...
in what should have been another obvious statement, Greenspan said that deflation is not a threat to the economy...given all the talk lately about building inflationary pressures, this shouldn't have been a surprise to the market, but also reflects a greater risk that rates will move higher...the comments from Greenspan completely swamped the positive impact from yet another good set of earnings numbers this morning, including an impressive report from General Motors (GM 47.77 +1.62)...however, the negative impact of rising rates on valuation is greater than the benefit of rising earnings at this time...volume was again moderate...
there are a lot more earnings reports to come this week, but the 10-year yield, which backed up to 4.46%, might attract more attention...the focus is on interest rates...NYSE Adv/Dec 788/2525, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 904/2294
1:36PM Pixelworks (PXLW) 18.31 +1.41: Pixelworks reported Q1 results after the close on Monday. The designer of high-speed mixed-signal digital, analog and video signal processing semiconductors printed EPS of $0.14 on revenue of $45.270MM (+41.4% Y/Y) vs. Reuters Research consensus at $0.09 on $42.27MM.
Sales driven by demand for LCD, plasma, and digital CRT television solutions.
Projector revenue (49% of sales) increased 20% Y/Y, driven by continued growth of sub-$1,000 projectors. Unit shipments increased 39% Y/Y while ASPs (average selling prices) declined 14% Y/Y. Market continues to expand with 18 brands covering over 30 sub-$1,000 projector models available in the U.S., up from approximately 25 models in Q4.
LCD monitor revenue (13% of sales) declined 16% Q/Q but bookings were strong, with the book-to-bill significantly higher than 1.0. XGA (25% of total LCD monitor sales) roughly flat, SXGA (30% of total LCD monitor sales) declined 20%, and UXGA (45% of total LCD monitor sales) declined 25%.
LCD monitor units declined approximately 11% Q/Q with ASPs down 6% Q/Q. Most of the decline in ASPs due to a lower unit shipments of UXGA chips, which carry the highest ASPs. ASPs essentially unchanged Y/Y due to a greater proportion of UXGA chips.
Advanced TV revenue (38% of sales) increased 283% Y/Y. Book-to-bill above 1.0. LCD TV (54% of total TV revenue) increased 468% Y/Y. Plasma TV (18% of total TV revenue) increased 122% Y/Y. Digital CRTs (26% of total TV revenue) increased 292% Y/Y. Digital rear projection TVs (2% of total TV revenue).
Gross margin increased 625 bps Y/Y to 52.6%. Operating margin increased 1,438 bps Y/Y to 22.8%.
Guided for Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.10-0.12 on revenue of $47.0-49.0MM (+44.4-50.5% Y/Y) vs. consensus at $0.10 on $45.01MM.
Projector revenue expected to be flat to down 5% Q/Q due to seasonality and as Texas Instruments (TXN 28.33 -0.07) ramps production of DDP 2000 engine for DLP-based projectors. The projector market is approximately 70% polysilicon LCD-based projectors and 30% DLP-based projectors.
LCD monitor revenue expected to increase 10-15% in Q4, with growth in all segments. Advanced TV revenue to increase 150% in Q4.
Shares are, based on our inverted EVA / DCF model, priced for sustained 30% revenue growth assuming 20% operating margin.
Revenue growth expectations reflect rapidly growing market for silicon-based image processing solutions. Projector market expected to increase 35% in C04, driven by lower-cost projectors and continued penetration of projectors into the consumer market. LCD monitor market to increase 40% to 70MM units. Advanced TV market to increase 75-100% in C04.
Operating margin in our model reflects margin compression due to competition and investments in product development and personnel, and is consistent with management's long-term target of 15-20% operating margin. Management expects Q2 gross margin to be 47-49% on a GAAP basis and slightly higher on a pro forma basis.
The following table shows price multiples and Y/Y growth rates for PXLW compared against the semiconductor components group. Company *P/SG Ratio **P/OPG Ratio P/S Y/Y Revenue Growth
TTM 2004E 2005E TTM 2004E 2005E
Pixelworks (PXLW) 2.7 (208.8) 5.0 4.1 4.1 37.3% 33.8% 24.8%
Genesis Microchip (GNSS) 1.7 (173.1) 2.6 2.6 2.2 12.6% 9.7% 19.5%
Macronix (MXICY) 5.3 (15.4) 3.5 n/a (5.0%) n/a
Silicon Image (SIMG) 4.5 (62.2) 9.3 6.2 5.0 26.8% 50.5% 22.7%
STMicroelectronics (STM) 1.9 60.3 2.8 2.3 2.0 14.6% 21.5% 12.9%
Texas Instruments (TXN) 2.7 28.6 4.6 3.8 3.3 20.9% 31.7% 15.1%
Trident Microsystems (TRID) 6.9 (88.3) 8.2 6.2 4.3 (31.6%) 1.2% 44.9%
Semiconductor Components 2.9 42.6 4.6 14.8%
*P/SG Ratio: Trailing 12 month (Price / Sales) / Growth ratio as of April 16, 2004.
**P/OPG Ratio: Trailing 12 month (Price / Operating Income) / Growth ratio as of April 16, 2004.
PXLW has more than 80% of the midpoint of the estimated revenue range for the second quarter either shipped, or booked and scheduled for shipment. Upside to forecast probable given visibility into Q2 at this stage of the quarter.
Expect shares to trend higher near-term given clear visibility into Q2 and high probability for upside to earnings. Shares are beginning to bump up against ceiling on a discounted cash flow basis but potential for significant price appreciation if rate of market adoption for advanced TVs markedly accelerates above current industry forecast of 30-35MM units by 2005, or PXLW captures significant market share.--Ping Yu, Briefing.com
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/story.html
The below table lays out Motorola's announcement, as well as other notable earnings reports of the evening:
After Hours Mover % Change Move Reason for Move
Applied Micro Circuits (00C0) +5% Semiconductor company reports Q1 (Mar) breakeven (consensus of a loss of $0.01) on sales that rose 24% to $47.4 mln (consensus of $44.8 mln); On its call, Applied Micro guides Q2 (June) revenues to the 'high 50s' (consensus of $52.2 mln) and margins to 63-64%
Career Education (CECO) +6% Post secondary education provider easily surpasses the consensus top and bottom-line estimates in its Q1 (Mar) report; New student starts surged 83% and led management to forecast a 52% increase in total student population by Apr 30; Company also guides Q2 (June) and FY04 (Dec) EPS and revenues well above market expectations
Internet Security (ISSX) -9% Computer service company reports flat Q1 (Mar) profits of $0.13 per share - in line with their upside guidance of $0.13-0.14 - but below the Street's estimate of $0.14; Company also issues Q2 (June) and FY04 (Dec) targets that are more weighted towards the low-end of analyst estimates; Management actually ended up lowering its FY04 EPS outlook
Motorola (MOT) +23% In a huge surprise to analysts, handset maker reports Q1 (Mar) EPS that was more than twice that of the consensus estimate; Sales also made a mockery of forecasts, rising 42% to $8.56 bln (consensus of $6.76 bln); On its call, Motorola says Q2 (June) handset sales should rise 60-80%, Company appears to be stealing share from Nokia (NOK), which warned for both Q1 (Mar) and Q2 (June)
Sanmina (SANM) +4% Electronic manufacturing service (EMS) name beats the Reuters Research EPS estimate by a penny on revenues that matched expectations; Company issues in-line earnings and sales ranges; Stock gets a nice pop after selling off 6% today; Other EMS providers - CLS, FLEX, JBL, and SLR - also get a boost
Seagate Tech (STX) unch Beleaguered storage device maker - which warned three times during the Q1 (Mar) period - reports final EPS of $0.07 (down 81%) on revenues that declined 14% to $1.39 bln; The latter item was short of the Street's estimate of $1.43 bln; Management says it will wait to the week of June 1 to deliver an update on business conditions citing (among other things) 'continued aggressive pricing in core markets'
Walt Disney (DIS) unch According to the NY Times, Disney has made major management changes at ABC; Company will fire both the chairman, Lloyd Braun, and the president, Susan Lyne - the latter in a surprise move considering Disney President Robert Iger's endorsement of her at a Bear Stearns conference last month; Disney is under pressure to turn around its operations in light of Comcast's (CMCSA) lingering offer
Tomorrow, Fed Chairman Greenspan will testify in front of Congress for a second day in a row - this time, in front of the Joint Economic Committee at 10 ET. If today's action is any indication, the market will be fairly attuned to any comments about inflation/interest rates. Earnings reports from 5 Dow components (Coke, Ford, Honeywell, JP Morgan, and United Technologies) should also grab the market's attention.
For more detail on these, and other developments, be sure to visit our Stock Market Update and Daily Sector Wrap. -- Heather Smith, Briefing.com
6:34PM Teradyne beats by $0.05 (TER) 22.24 -0.82: Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.20 per share, $0.05 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.15; revenues rose 28.7% year/year to $430.6 mln vs the $421.0 mln consensus.
5:35PM Seagate Tech says unable to provide guidance (STX) 14.51 -0.01: -- Update -- In the press release, STX says it's unable to provide earnings guidance due to challenging environment and numerous factors, including longer product cycles, continued aggressive pricing in core markets and ongoing changes in how STX and the industry serve the distribution channel. Co. plans to deliver an update on industry conditions and its operating performance during the week of June 1, 2004.
5:02PM Genus Inc misses by 2 cents (GGNS) 3.37 +0.01: Co reports Q1 EPS of ($0.04), $0.02 worse than consensus of ($0.02); revs were $12.2 mln, vs consensus of $13.3 mln.
4:55PM Sirenza Micro beats by $0.02, ex items (SMDI) 4.70 -0.15: Reports Q1 (Mar) management-adjusted net income of $663,000 or earnings of $0.02 per diluted share, excluding charges, $0.02 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.00; revenues rose 137.9% year/year to $13.8 mln vs the $13.1 mln consensus.
4:46PM Cymer beats by $0.02 (CYMI) 36.19 +0.04: Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.19 per share, $0.02 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.17; revenues rose 30.5% year/year to $87.9 mln vs the $83.5 mln consensus.
4:36PM Storage Tech reports in line; reaffirms Y04 (STK) 27.69 +0.48: Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.21 per share, in line with the Reuters Research consensus of $0.21; revenues rose 7.3% year/year to $515.1 mln vs the $518.4 mln consensus. Co states, "At this point we are on track to deliver the results we anticipated as we entered 2004".
4:33PM Silicon Image beats by a penny (SIMG) 12.70 -0.63: Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.06 per share, $0.01 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.05; revenues rose 45.3% year/year to $35.9 mln vs the $34.6 mln consensus.
4:30PM MKS Instruments beats by $0.09, ex items, guides Q2 above consensus (MKSI) 20.94 -0.93: Reports Q1 (Mar) non-GAAP earnings of $0.31 per share, excluding amortization of acquired intangible assets and other special items, $0.09 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.22; revenues rose 82.7% year/year to $133.0 mln vs the $123.1 mln consensus. Co also guides, sees non-GAAP Q2 EPS of $0.35-0.43 (ex items), vs the R.R. consensus of $0.28.
4:28PM Sanmina-SCI beats by a penny, ex items, guides inline (SANM) 10.19 -0.60: Reports Q2 (Mar) earnings of $0.05 per share, ex items, $0.01 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.04; revenues rose 17.1% year/year to $2.86 bln vs the $2.86 bln consensus. Co sees Q3 EPS of $0.05-0.07 vs $0.06 Reuters Research consensus on revs of $2.9-3.1 bln, consensus $3.02 bln
4:26PM MKSI prelim $0.31 ex-items, 9 cents ahead
4:25PM Motorola beats by $0.12, guides higher (MOT) 16.22 -0.48: Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.19 per share, which excludes $0.065 in gains, $0.12 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.07; revenues rose 41.7% year/year to $8.56 bln vs the $6.76 bln consensus. Company sees Q2 EPS of $0.14-0.18 vs consensus of $0.09 on revenues of $8.2-8.6 bln, consensus $6.92 bln
4:15PM Seagate Tech reports in line, ex items, light on revs (STX) 14.52 -0.27: Reports Q3 (Mar) earnings of $0.07 per share, excluding items, in line with the Reuters Research consensus of $0.07; revenues fell 14.3% year/year to $1.39 bln vs the $1.43 bln consensus.
4:04PM Pericom Semi beats by $0.01, ex items, guides Q4 revs in line (PSEM) 10.75 +0.25: Reports Q3 (Mar) net of breakeven, $0.01 better than the Reuters Research consensus of ($0.01); revenues rose 60.7% year/year to $18.5 mln vs the $18.3 mln consensus. Co also guides Q4, sees revenues of $19.75-20.3 mln, vs the R.R. estimate of $20.0 mln.
Close Dow -123.35 at 10,314.50, S&P -17.73 at 1,118.09, Nasdaq -41.80 at 1,978.63: Stocks went into a mild panic today over the prospect of higher interest rates...the underlying anxiety broke through in the afternoon when Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan made what could easily have been interpreted as mild, even obvious, comments...he said that the financial system is well positioned to deal with higher interest rates...this doesn't mean that the Fed is going to raise rates soon or sharply, but the assumption that rates will move higher nevertheless raised fears among investors...
in what should have been another obvious statement, Greenspan said that deflation is not a threat to the economy...given all the talk lately about building inflationary pressures, this shouldn't have been a surprise to the market, but also reflects a greater risk that rates will move higher...the comments from Greenspan completely swamped the positive impact from yet another good set of earnings numbers this morning, including an impressive report from General Motors (GM 47.77 +1.62)...however, the negative impact of rising rates on valuation is greater than the benefit of rising earnings at this time...volume was again moderate...
there are a lot more earnings reports to come this week, but the 10-year yield, which backed up to 4.46%, might attract more attention...the focus is on interest rates...NYSE Adv/Dec 788/2525, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 904/2294
1:36PM Pixelworks (PXLW) 18.31 +1.41: Pixelworks reported Q1 results after the close on Monday. The designer of high-speed mixed-signal digital, analog and video signal processing semiconductors printed EPS of $0.14 on revenue of $45.270MM (+41.4% Y/Y) vs. Reuters Research consensus at $0.09 on $42.27MM.
Sales driven by demand for LCD, plasma, and digital CRT television solutions.
Projector revenue (49% of sales) increased 20% Y/Y, driven by continued growth of sub-$1,000 projectors. Unit shipments increased 39% Y/Y while ASPs (average selling prices) declined 14% Y/Y. Market continues to expand with 18 brands covering over 30 sub-$1,000 projector models available in the U.S., up from approximately 25 models in Q4.
LCD monitor revenue (13% of sales) declined 16% Q/Q but bookings were strong, with the book-to-bill significantly higher than 1.0. XGA (25% of total LCD monitor sales) roughly flat, SXGA (30% of total LCD monitor sales) declined 20%, and UXGA (45% of total LCD monitor sales) declined 25%.
LCD monitor units declined approximately 11% Q/Q with ASPs down 6% Q/Q. Most of the decline in ASPs due to a lower unit shipments of UXGA chips, which carry the highest ASPs. ASPs essentially unchanged Y/Y due to a greater proportion of UXGA chips.
Advanced TV revenue (38% of sales) increased 283% Y/Y. Book-to-bill above 1.0. LCD TV (54% of total TV revenue) increased 468% Y/Y. Plasma TV (18% of total TV revenue) increased 122% Y/Y. Digital CRTs (26% of total TV revenue) increased 292% Y/Y. Digital rear projection TVs (2% of total TV revenue).
Gross margin increased 625 bps Y/Y to 52.6%. Operating margin increased 1,438 bps Y/Y to 22.8%.
Guided for Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.10-0.12 on revenue of $47.0-49.0MM (+44.4-50.5% Y/Y) vs. consensus at $0.10 on $45.01MM.
Projector revenue expected to be flat to down 5% Q/Q due to seasonality and as Texas Instruments (TXN 28.33 -0.07) ramps production of DDP 2000 engine for DLP-based projectors. The projector market is approximately 70% polysilicon LCD-based projectors and 30% DLP-based projectors.
LCD monitor revenue expected to increase 10-15% in Q4, with growth in all segments. Advanced TV revenue to increase 150% in Q4.
Shares are, based on our inverted EVA / DCF model, priced for sustained 30% revenue growth assuming 20% operating margin.
Revenue growth expectations reflect rapidly growing market for silicon-based image processing solutions. Projector market expected to increase 35% in C04, driven by lower-cost projectors and continued penetration of projectors into the consumer market. LCD monitor market to increase 40% to 70MM units. Advanced TV market to increase 75-100% in C04.
Operating margin in our model reflects margin compression due to competition and investments in product development and personnel, and is consistent with management's long-term target of 15-20% operating margin. Management expects Q2 gross margin to be 47-49% on a GAAP basis and slightly higher on a pro forma basis.
The following table shows price multiples and Y/Y growth rates for PXLW compared against the semiconductor components group. Company *P/SG Ratio **P/OPG Ratio P/S Y/Y Revenue Growth
TTM 2004E 2005E TTM 2004E 2005E
Pixelworks (PXLW) 2.7 (208.8) 5.0 4.1 4.1 37.3% 33.8% 24.8%
Genesis Microchip (GNSS) 1.7 (173.1) 2.6 2.6 2.2 12.6% 9.7% 19.5%
Macronix (MXICY) 5.3 (15.4) 3.5 n/a (5.0%) n/a
Silicon Image (SIMG) 4.5 (62.2) 9.3 6.2 5.0 26.8% 50.5% 22.7%
STMicroelectronics (STM) 1.9 60.3 2.8 2.3 2.0 14.6% 21.5% 12.9%
Texas Instruments (TXN) 2.7 28.6 4.6 3.8 3.3 20.9% 31.7% 15.1%
Trident Microsystems (TRID) 6.9 (88.3) 8.2 6.2 4.3 (31.6%) 1.2% 44.9%
Semiconductor Components 2.9 42.6 4.6 14.8%
*P/SG Ratio: Trailing 12 month (Price / Sales) / Growth ratio as of April 16, 2004.
**P/OPG Ratio: Trailing 12 month (Price / Operating Income) / Growth ratio as of April 16, 2004.
PXLW has more than 80% of the midpoint of the estimated revenue range for the second quarter either shipped, or booked and scheduled for shipment. Upside to forecast probable given visibility into Q2 at this stage of the quarter.
Expect shares to trend higher near-term given clear visibility into Q2 and high probability for upside to earnings. Shares are beginning to bump up against ceiling on a discounted cash flow basis but potential for significant price appreciation if rate of market adoption for advanced TVs markedly accelerates above current industry forecast of 30-35MM units by 2005, or PXLW captures significant market share.--Ping Yu, Briefing.com
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/story.html
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