GOLDEN PHOENIX MINERALS (GPXM)

[Ericus]

From lemetropole:

CASH SILVER: 4/25 CLOSE: 16.88 - ALL PRICES BELOW BASIS CASH SILVER

1. From the high of $21.40 on 3/17/08, the market is either correcting the move from $9.38 ( 6/12/06) or from 13.56 ( 12/17/07 ).

2. In either case, after the correction is over, we will go to new highs.

3. If we are correcting the move from 13.56, the time involved would be a lot shorter, in theory, than the other alternative.

4. In either case, I believe we are very close to the end of the correction from the $21.40 highs and possibly reached it on 4/25 at the 16.37 low.

5. Now, for the important numbers:

- cash silver has HUGE, AND I MEAN HUGE, support which should not be breached between 15.31 to 15.385 or about 8% below the 4/25 close of 16.88. In my opinion, it would take an extraordinary exogenous event for these prices to be taken out.

- in the world of investment and trading, everything is a probability, since there never is 100% certainty. Having said that, I believe the probability of going as low as 15.31 to 15.385 is small, let's say 10/15%.

- above the 15.31 to 15.385 zone, there are potential measured " targets " between 15.55 to 15.84.

- the weekly and daily momentums are getting very close to oversold levels from which they have almost always had significant rallies.

6. In view of the above, anytime that one can have a risk of 8% for unlimited upside, is certainly an investment worth considering.

7. Of late, my only concern has been the fundamental demand for silver since a great deal comes from industrial usage. If the world economies were to go into a synchronous severe recession, it would be logical to expect a severe lessening of demand for silver. Such a probability remains remote with the central banks providing an unprecedented rate of money infusion into the banking system. And then, I read that Mitsui, on 4/23, announces a new autocatalyst using silver instead of platinum ( about 4.2million ozs yearly ) and my concerns are lessened even more.

8. In conclusion, I believe that we are very close, in terms of price, to the lows of the correction. This does not mean that we shoot straight up to new highs as we could still have a decent move up to be followed by sideways action before the highs are eventually taken out.

9. One last comment: 95% of the weak longs of been taken out of the market and there are no more sell stops below of significance ( very bullish ). Pressure, however, could still come from forced margin call selling or if a hedge fund is in trouble with underwater gold and silver futures.

CASH GOLD: 4/25 CLOSE: $887.00 ; ALL PRICES BELOW BASIS CASH

1. As with silver, gold could go a bit lower than the low of 877.60 seen on 4/25 to finish the correction from the highs of $1033 seen on 3/16. It may be above or below the low of 4/1 at 872.00. If the low is in, it would be what is termed an " irregular correction ".

2. If below 872, there are targets at 867 to 868.

3. Now for the important numbers:

- Gold has HUGE support between 842 to 846.60. Everything is probabilities, and I believe these numbers would hold the correction from the highs, as an extreme. This would be a 5% drop from the close of 4/25.

4. There are lower numbers theoretically possible that would not violate the technical condition of this bull market but I give them very low probabilities so I won't bother mentioning them.

5. Whatever the exact number is for the end of the correction, we will then resume the bull market to new highs.

Wishing you successful investing/trading.
Michel de Chabert-Ostland, CEO
Royal Palm Trading Co., Inc.