AI
Tuesday, April 29, 2008 9:43:37 PM
Ericus...MSG # 3163 was the weekly trigger explained. As I recall you may have thought I was dealing in daytrader tactics and dismissed it as such.
If you look at the WEEKLY chart above on this page you will see a rev. bar which is the bar (week) after the one marked .16
It is the first green bar (Not important the green) except for illstration)I usually do this in black and white.
The rule is (in what ever time frame you chose, The rule is the same, we are using weekly because I believe it is the best chance of catching this stock in a real move) It would be silly to use a shorter time frame. But you can use this rule on a 5 min. chart if you have a liquid enough and volitile enough stock)
Rule: When the reverse bar occurs in a down trend, wait for the high of this bar to be taken out to the upside.Golong as close to the high of the rev. bar as you can, and usethe low of the rev. bar as a stop.
Near as I can see looks like .19 was the trigger and the low or stop would be .16
If it gets below .16 this trigger is invalid.
So the risk is .03
Just adjust the trade so that you only risjk the dollar amount you want. IF I am willing to risk $900 total I would have bought 30k shares. Or $9,000 risk I would buy 300,000 shares.
See how this works? You let the market tell you what the paremeters are. Then you adjust your account to reflect the actual dollars art risk.
Too often an investor will say..."I only want to risk 10% or I only want to risk $1000...then they buy the wrong amount of shares and have to sell befpore the market acually turns for real....they get stopped out early. Or they risk to little and do not catch "the big one"
Say you want to buy a stock and it starts to take off. "dang it!" I knew it,you think.....and it just keeps going up, and you watch in anger or frustration and add up all the dollars you should be making. Finally you throw in the towell and buy.....hahahah....guess what? It is the top!
There are tried and true ways to beat all this balony. But it all goes against human nature. That is why so many loose at this biz. We are wired to do all the wrong things to make money.
#1 rule is ....and you can't just say you believe this because we are all wired to noTwant to belive this. YOU CAN NEVER KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT...NEVER, NO WAY.
Think of the billions spent on reports and projections, and predictions....BILLIONS go out to the public. And all the trading and investing world wants to believe they can get an edge by being more clever, and have better charts, and better systems and better formulas. It is all the desire to know what to expect next....hahahahah
#2 Rule have NO EXPECTATIONS....none. An expectation is a demand that something happens in the future that you need to happen to fullfill you or make you happy, or make you whole.
You buy a stock EXPECTING it to perform.....you have all the reports, all the info, all the gossip, all the edge you can. You lined up haundreds of indicators, gurus jump on board and all....yet this stock is valued less than half of a year ago......whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?...hahahahaha yup!
SO much for now, not sure how I got off on this diatribe. I certainly hope you understand the "YOU" I am speaking of here is "ME"....I have fought and slayed these demons for years and they never go quietly into the night. Thety are a battle with my God given human nature and I would not want it any other way.
That is why for me trading is like riding big waves, working in big seas and all...a challnge that is endlessly facinating, challenging, tough, fun, and just a down right hoot sometimes.
Best of "luck" to all.....
If you look at the WEEKLY chart above on this page you will see a rev. bar which is the bar (week) after the one marked .16
It is the first green bar (Not important the green) except for illstration)I usually do this in black and white.
The rule is (in what ever time frame you chose, The rule is the same, we are using weekly because I believe it is the best chance of catching this stock in a real move) It would be silly to use a shorter time frame. But you can use this rule on a 5 min. chart if you have a liquid enough and volitile enough stock)
Rule: When the reverse bar occurs in a down trend, wait for the high of this bar to be taken out to the upside.Golong as close to the high of the rev. bar as you can, and usethe low of the rev. bar as a stop.
Near as I can see looks like .19 was the trigger and the low or stop would be .16
If it gets below .16 this trigger is invalid.
So the risk is .03
Just adjust the trade so that you only risjk the dollar amount you want. IF I am willing to risk $900 total I would have bought 30k shares. Or $9,000 risk I would buy 300,000 shares.
See how this works? You let the market tell you what the paremeters are. Then you adjust your account to reflect the actual dollars art risk.
Too often an investor will say..."I only want to risk 10% or I only want to risk $1000...then they buy the wrong amount of shares and have to sell befpore the market acually turns for real....they get stopped out early. Or they risk to little and do not catch "the big one"
Say you want to buy a stock and it starts to take off. "dang it!" I knew it,you think.....and it just keeps going up, and you watch in anger or frustration and add up all the dollars you should be making. Finally you throw in the towell and buy.....hahahah....guess what? It is the top!
There are tried and true ways to beat all this balony. But it all goes against human nature. That is why so many loose at this biz. We are wired to do all the wrong things to make money.
#1 rule is ....and you can't just say you believe this because we are all wired to noTwant to belive this. YOU CAN NEVER KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT...NEVER, NO WAY.
Think of the billions spent on reports and projections, and predictions....BILLIONS go out to the public. And all the trading and investing world wants to believe they can get an edge by being more clever, and have better charts, and better systems and better formulas. It is all the desire to know what to expect next....hahahahah
#2 Rule have NO EXPECTATIONS....none. An expectation is a demand that something happens in the future that you need to happen to fullfill you or make you happy, or make you whole.
You buy a stock EXPECTING it to perform.....you have all the reports, all the info, all the gossip, all the edge you can. You lined up haundreds of indicators, gurus jump on board and all....yet this stock is valued less than half of a year ago......whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?...hahahahaha yup!
SO much for now, not sure how I got off on this diatribe. I certainly hope you understand the "YOU" I am speaking of here is "ME"....I have fought and slayed these demons for years and they never go quietly into the night. Thety are a battle with my God given human nature and I would not want it any other way.
That is why for me trading is like riding big waves, working in big seas and all...a challnge that is endlessly facinating, challenging, tough, fun, and just a down right hoot sometimes.
Best of "luck" to all.....
Trade what you see...not what you think...:-)
