CYCLE Turn & Analysis for the week of April 19
Did we get our cycle turn scheduled for today (on/around the 16th)? Hard to say with Options Expiry and all, but we did get our pull back as I suspected and mentioned in my prior cycle post with which this post replies. Let's step back and take a look at what occured the last couple of days and try to see if indeed we did get a cycle turn.
We got the biggest part of this pullback on Wednesday with Thursday taking us down a bit below the COMPQ 2000 level which I had earmarked as support. We pierced the 50DMA and then bounced off of the 1989 level to finish at 2002. As for today, considering the volatility involved and the drop at the beginning of the session to the 1982 level we turned green at one point and ended the session at 1995. While it is hard to determine if we in fact have seen the bottom for this current downtrend, I believe we are very close. Before going any further on trends, let's review the Economic #'s for the week.
It was a busy week and once again this past weeks Eco #'s was a mixed bag of nuts, but there were some rather intriguing numbers reported... Retail Sales and Business Inventories shot up and so did the CPI (.5%) which is an important gauge of inflation (as diluted as it may be). The Treasury Budget fell (no surprise there), but Jobless claims which may cool rising rate fears and prove to be the catalyst for our next move shot way up by 30K. The NY Empire Index and Philly Fed #'s rose sharply while both Building Permits and Housing Starts increased slightly. Last but not least Capacity Utilization, Industrial production and Consumer Sentiment all fell.
As for next weeks economic picture, it is pretty quiet with only LEI, Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Orders on deck. We may get the PPI, but it has been a mystery number and has not been reported on any type of regular schedule since the New Year began.
So what can we expect for next week? A quick glance at some indicators show us that $NAAD and $NAHL turned slightly Bullish, the $VXN and $BPNDX look neutral while the McClellan Sum still remains somewhat bearish. While we appear to be in oversold territory, we may continue sideways or range bound for a couple of days with Wednesday being a late turn, but within the Bradley margin for error. The biggest thing to carry us forward next week may very well be the lack of Eco #'s, the Jobless Claims number reported this past week along with the one to come next week and of course Earnings Reports. While the reporting season is still young, we have yet to see any impetus from these reports and the Job #'s may end up being the catalyst to drive us. Which way it drives us is still to be determined...
AI
Market Data 
Markets 
