Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

>> What do you think of AMLN? <<

tbl: I haven’t looked at the valuation lately, but I very much like the fact that AMLN has an SPA in place for the complex Exenatide submission.

If I recall correctly, Exenatide is a 50/50 JV with LLY. This will delay AMLN’s profitability by at least a year (and perhaps longer) from the launch date, because AMLN will have to fund half of the substantial launch-related marketing costs. As a result, investors might have a chance to get in relatively cheaply even after an Exenatide approval.

Of course, AMLN’s JV will end up making more money for shareholders, eventually, than a simple royalty arrangement would have, but investor frustration at having to wait so long for profitability might lead to some exploitable pricing inefficiency next year. JMHO