The NDX did indeed open higher on Tuesday with a “GAP Opening” to 1502.52. The market then reversed with a hard sell-off on Tuesday into the close. On Wednesday the NDX “GAP Opened” lower to 1463.63, where it completed a smaller degree Impulse Wave to the downside from 1502.52. From Wednesday’s inter-day LOW at 1463.63, the NDX conducted a three wave corrective rally to 1485.28. This initial rally may have completed the “entire” corrective process or was simply Wave-a of lesser degree. The latter wave count would allow for a higher morning on Thursday before the DECLINE resumes. Any move below 1463.63 would indicate that the short-term corrective process is over and further declines are underway. Either way, the GAP at 1453 is the short-term target.
Once the NDX moves below 1430, we will have confirmation that the Larger Degree Wave-3 is unfolding which will result in substantial declines into late July/early August. At that point we will get the Wave-4 corrective rally; followed the final Wave-5 decline, which should be completed on or about November 19th of 2004.
I am looking for the SPX to be at 582 on or about November 19th of 2004.
I purchased the Rydex Venture (RYVNX) Fund at Monday’s close for a price of $24.92 per share. My STOP LOSS, at this time, is at 1520 on the NDX. I will be lowering this STOP LOSS level in the weeks and months ahead.
Currently, I have a position in the Rydex Venture (RYVNX) Fund, established on 04/12/04, within the Aggressive Portion of the portfolio; while the Conservative Portion of the portfolio has been in Cash or Cash equivalents since 01/02/04.
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