"obtaining 56 more events pales in comparison to the nightmare scenario where: a) Provenge really does have good efficacy; b) the new 9902b trial fails; and c) the old 9902b trial would have succeeded."
How do you think FDA will react if the new 9902b trial fails to show a statistically significant benefit, but upon 56 more deaths that it swings the p-value to below the magical 0.05 level. Will you be certain that FDA will reject study 9902b altogether?